大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年

华尔街见闻03-10

2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于...

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精彩评论

Mediator
03-10
Mediator
2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的
带泡沫的苹果
03-10
带泡沫的苹果
你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光
- 带泡沫的苹果:
  没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业
- 霸气威武:
  脱实向虚虚空作画
Johnfly999
03-10
Johnfly999
赌未来

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100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":282746172555304,"gmtCreate":1710058317301,"gmtModify":1710058319794,"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccbee84d06c97c8ea354bff2e5c20b6d","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1c01e958f63198f5d9648b59135f687","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","listText":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","text":"2000的互联网基建和2023的AI基建不具备可比性，互联网企业在初期就能够实现成本的快速覆盖和盈利，AI企业在初期甚至中期都无法实现盈利，最成功的openai也仅仅勉强能够覆盖上一期的成本，下一期成倍数增长的成本都很有可能无法覆盖，这样情况下的硬件需求快速增长本身就是不可持续的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282746172555304","repostId":2418075892,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2418075892","pubTimestamp":1710029468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2418075892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-10 08:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418075892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>2000年网络泡沫期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>周五大跌似乎验证了“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>时刻”的到来。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。</p><blockquote><p>AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。</p><p>今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。</p><p>互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。</p></blockquote><p>尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：</p><blockquote><p>每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4a40e36d1a4a3b1775c34c96ba1a42\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></blockquote><p>除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。</p><p>另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。</p><p>因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。</p><p>即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p>回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p><p>因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b383bb4b1972912f7ea3efcf2dffcc6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"745\"/></p></blockquote><p>大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-10 08:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4616e4326c718904d732530261ec5d4","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL 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Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":282745167196192,"gmtCreate":1710057964387,"gmtModify":1710057965982,"author":{"id":"3491812622453185","authorId":"3491812622453185","name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","listText":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","text":"你可以讨厌资本，但你不能否认资本的眼光","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282745167196192","repostId":2418075892,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2418075892","pubTimestamp":1710029468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2418075892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-10 08:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418075892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>2000年网络泡沫期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>周五大跌似乎验证了“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>时刻”的到来。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。</p><blockquote><p>AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。</p><p>今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。</p><p>互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。</p></blockquote><p>尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：</p><blockquote><p>每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4a40e36d1a4a3b1775c34c96ba1a42\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></blockquote><p>除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。</p><p>另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。</p><p>因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。</p><p>即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p>回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p><p>因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b383bb4b1972912f7ea3efcf2dffcc6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"745\"/></p></blockquote><p>大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-10 08:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4616e4326c718904d732530261ec5d4","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL 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INC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","CSCO":"思科","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM3\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","BK4588":"碎股","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2418075892","content_text":"2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":282759357448208,"gmtCreate":1710061431503,"gmtModify":1710061435342,"authorId":3491812622453185,"author":{"id":3491812622453185,"authorId":3491812622453185,"name":"带泡沫的苹果","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9250937a0cdbddaf9a218f28567ee36","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":282745167196192,"type":1,"supId":282746258554888,"prevId":0,"content":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业","text":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业","html":"没办法呀，别人玩的就金融与科技和服务业"},{"id":282746258554888,"gmtCreate":1710058233112,"gmtModify":1710058236888,"authorId":3554708838834221,"author":{"id":3554708838834221,"authorId":3554708838834221,"name":"霸气威武","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884a97d08a6f7f0246c299686e81f873","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":282745167196192,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"脱实向虚&nbsp; 虚空作画&nbsp;","text":"脱实向虚&nbsp; 虚空作画&nbsp;","html":"脱实向虚&nbsp; 虚空作画&nbsp;"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":282745102127136,"gmtCreate":1710057948501,"gmtModify":1710057950369,"author":{"id":"3579574272599070","authorId":"3579574272599070","name":"Johnfly999","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ef7014aea552d0841542b01683eaf13","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"赌未来","listText":"赌未来","text":"赌未来","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/282745102127136","repostId":2418075892,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2418075892","pubTimestamp":1710029468,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2418075892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-10 08:11","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2418075892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>2000年网络泡沫期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>周五大跌似乎验证了“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">思科</a>时刻”的到来。但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。</p><blockquote><p>AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。</p><p>今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。</p><p>互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。</p></blockquote><p>尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：</p><blockquote><p>每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f4a40e36d1a4a3b1775c34c96ba1a42\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p></blockquote><p>除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。</p><p>另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。</p><p>因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。</p><p>即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>在报告中写道：</p><blockquote><p>回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。</p><p>因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b383bb4b1972912f7ea3efcf2dffcc6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"745\"/></p></blockquote><p>大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：AI基建才刚开始，英伟达不是思科，远没到1999年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-10 08:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2000年网络泡沫期间，思科的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。英伟达周五大跌似乎验证了“思科时刻”的到来。但摩根士丹利认为，无论是从两者所处的科技环境、自身实力和估值上看，英伟达都不是当年的思科。摩根士丹利Shawn Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710038\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4616e4326c718904d732530261ec5d4","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","NVDA":"英伟达","IE00BKVL7J92.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Equity Sustainability Leaders A Acc USD","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0127658192.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999001440.SGD":"United Global Dividend Equity Fund A SGD Dist","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL 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Kim分析师团队本周发布报告，对比了互联网泡沫与当前的AI热潮，强调当前AI基础设施投资热潮仅仅处于初期阶段，尚未达到互联网1999年的泡沫水平。AI基础设施建设仅仅是一个开始。 每个超大规模企业都在构建基础设施，以便尝试在该基础设施之上构建应用程序、工具和服务。今天，正在进行的AI数据中心加速计算建设只是第一阶段，但这只是构建所有AI应用程序的支柱，增加了一个颠覆性的技术层（大型语言模型），成本更低，上市更快。互联网泡沫从1994年12月开始，到2000年3月达到顶峰，期间经历了多次回调。英伟达首次上调销售预期是在2022年5月，Chat GPT在2022年11月才被广泛讨论。从时间上看，我们尚未达到1999年的泡沫水平。尤其是，GPU投资才刚刚起步，大摩认为，AI供应链的投资增长将会对其产生乘数效应：每100美元的云资本支出将转化为30-40美元的AI收入，这意味着在GPU上的投资将成倍增加。除了GPU之外，AI供应链的增长还将为HBM、定制芯片设计、制造和测试等领域带来机遇。另外，考虑到GPU开发技术复杂，如一块Grace Hopper 100芯片包含35000个组件，重量达35公斤，英伟达凭借长期的积累，在该领域拥有较为宽阔的技术“护城河”。因此，尽管越来越多同行“下海”自主研发AI芯片，英伟达算力“一哥”的地位在很长一段时间内不会被动摇。即使从估值角度来看，英伟达股价也很可能未见顶。摩根大通在报告中写道：回顾2000年网络泡沫期间的代表性公司思科，其当时的收入增长率达到了59%，而其前瞻市盈率高达138倍。相比之下，如今的英伟达市盈率仅为30倍，但其收入增长率却达到了90%。因此，无论从估值的角度还是从长远看，我们都不能认为当前（英伟达）已接近市场的顶峰。大摩认为，AI基础设施的初期投资巨大，但长期来看，其带来的应用层价值可能远超成本。超大规模公司在AI领域的投资将要求相应的回报率，这将推动AI云服务的盈利增长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":5,"favoriteSize":8,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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