贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出业绩增长工具充足

国信证券03-28

事项：事件：2024 年3 月21 日，第二十届中国国际酒业博览会在四川泸州开幕。茅台股份、茅台家族产品“一盘棋”参展，向消费者集中展示了茅台产品的品质与文化。国信食饮观点：1）贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期。2）配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性。3）业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小。4）投资建议：维持此前盈利预测，我们预计2023-2025 年...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2422156243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-03-28 17:04","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2422156243","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出 业绩增长工具充足","media":"国信证券","content":"<div>\n<p>事项：事件：2024 年3 月21 日，第二十届中国国际酒业博览会在四川泸州开幕。茅台股份、茅台家族产品“一盘棋”参展，向消费者集中展示了茅台产品的品质与文化。国信食饮观点：1）贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期。2）配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性。3）业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小。4）投资建议：维持此前盈利预测， 我们预计2023-2025 年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032817042387bff0c8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出 业绩增长工具充足</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出 业绩增长工具充足\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-28 17:04 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032817042387bff0c8&s=b><strong>国信证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>事项：事件：2024 年3 月21 日，第二十届中国国际酒业博览会在四川泸州开幕。茅台股份、茅台家族产品“一盘棋”参展，向消费者集中展示了茅台产品的品质与文化。国信食饮观点：1）贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期。2）配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性。3）业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小。4）投资建议：维持此前盈利预测， 我们预计2023-2025 年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032817042387bff0c8&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0326950275.SGD","symbol_name":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032817042387bff0c8&s=b","article_id":"2422156243","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024032817042387bff0c8&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2422156243","pubTimestamp":1711616659,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"国信食饮观点：1）贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期。3）业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小。配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性在库存维度，贵州茅台近期重点围绕老酒市场不断做动作，致力于打造良性的老酒价格体系，进而提升社会库存老酒的价值感，减少社会库存对茅台酒价格的负向冲击。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600519":"贵州茅台","LU0326950275.SGD":"Schroder ISF China Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","BK0188":"融资融券","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK0187":"一线龙头","LU0823426480.USD":"法巴中国股票经典Dis","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0918141887.USD":"安联亚洲实际收益股票基金","LU0651946864.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A2","LU0577902611.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0359201612.USD":"贝莱德中国基金A2","BK0215":"饮品","BK0175":"白马股","LU0516422440.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1051768304.USD":"贝莱德新兴市场股票收益A6","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU0251143458.SGD":"Fidelity Emerging Markets A-SGD","LU1146622755.USD":"安本中国A股股票基金A Acc","LU0039217434.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU0594300419.USD":"富达中国消费基金A","BK0183":"MSCI概念","LU0577902298.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU0650527681.SGD":"Fidelity China Consumer A-SGD","BK0012":"证金概念","LU0516422952.EUR":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (EUR) ACC","LU0048580855.USD":"富达大中华区A","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0577902538.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Growth and Income Equities A Acc SGD","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0228659784.USD":"施罗德金砖四国基金","LU0577902454.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA GROWTH & INCOME EQUITIE \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0072913022.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  GREATER CHINA \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0405327148.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0405327494.USD":"ALLSPRING CHINA A FOCUS \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0015":"沪股通50","LU0051755006.USD":"摩根大通中国A (dist)","LU0307460666.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU1105468828.SGD":"Allianz Total Return Asian Equity AM DIS H2-SGD","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND -  CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0084288322.USD":"Natixis Asia Equity RD USD","LU0588546209.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China Equity Fund AS SGD","LU0823426308.USD":"法巴中国股票基金","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0370786039.SGD":"Fidelity Greater China A-SGD"},"translate_title":"Kweichow Moutai (600519): Outstanding price management ability and sufficient performance growth tools","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9},"content_text":"事项：事件：2024 年3 月21 日，第二十届中国国际酒业博览会在四川泸州开幕。茅台股份、茅台家族产品“一盘棋”参展，向消费者集中展示了茅台产品的品质与文化。国信食饮观点：1）贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期。2）配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性。3）业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小。4）投资建议：维持此前盈利预测， 我们预计2023-2025 年有望实现营收1495.0/1719.3/1977.1 亿元， 同比+17.2%/+15.0%/+15.0%；预计归母净利润735.2/862.7/1001.9 亿元，同比+17.2%/+17.3%/+16.1%，对应PE 分别为29.1/24.8/21.3X，维持“买入”评级。评论：贵州茅台价格管理能力突出，或有效熨平需求波动周期短期看，原箱茅台酒批价出现一定波动，市场或担心需求下滑、酒厂价格管控能力弱化，但我们认为：1）本次短期茅台酒批价波动是阶段性放货所致，和底层需求关联不大，更多是节奏扰动；2）酒厂价格管理手段日臻完善，仍然可以通过发货节奏、发货结构、发货区域等技术性手段保证价格体系稳定性；3）茅台酒经销商自发组织维护价盘，经销商联谊会或自发通过收货、价盘托底等方式，保证流通渠道价格稳定。配额投放更加多元化，歧视性定价确保价格体系稳定性在库存维度，贵州茅台近期重点围绕老酒市场不断做动作，致力于打造良性的老酒价格体系，进而提升社会库存老酒的价值感，减少社会库存对茅台酒价格的负向冲击。在供给维度，酒厂希望实现配额投放多元化、社会库存散点化等来保证价格体系稳定性：1）传统经销商飞天配额维持不变，电商、KA 等平台投放量同比增加，企业团购2024 年配额或进一步增投。2）增量配额方面，公司通过渠道结构优化，提升增量配额开瓶率。3）在定价层面，公司或适当采取“歧视性定价”策略，来确保价格体系的稳定性。业绩增长工具充足，短期&中期业绩达成压力相对较小从业绩置信度看，我们发现公司业绩增长工具较多，或有望实现跨周期增长：1）2023 年公司对飞天茅台酒主动提价，经测算预计能贡献4-5%业绩增量；2）公司新品散花飞天、巽风酒等，预计能贡献一定增量；3）茅台酒计划拿酒量同比上年略有高个位数增长，预计团购渠道等新兴渠道能有效承接。中期维度看，茅台集团层面对于2027 年中期目标主动减压，我们仍认为贵州茅台中期经营约束不明显，仍能继续采取长期化运作。投资建议：维持“买入”评级维持此前盈利预测， 我们预计2023-2025 年有望实现营收1495.0/1719.3/1977.1 亿元， 同比+17.2%/+15.0%/+15.0%；预计归母净利润735.2/862.7/1001.9 亿元，同比+17.2%/+17.3%/+16.1%，对应PE 分别为29.1/24.8/21.3X，维持“买入”评级。风险提示需求复苏不及预期；竞争加剧；提价传导不及预期等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2422156243"}

贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出 业绩增长工具充足

精彩评论

贵州茅台(600519)：价格管理能力突出业绩增长工具充足