农业银行(601288)年报点评：县域稳步发力，资产增长持续

华泰证券03-29

县域稳步发力，资产增长持续2023年归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP分别同比+3.9%(重述)、持平(重述)、-3.8%(重述)，增速较前三季度-1.1pct、+0.6pct、-0.7pct。2023年拟每股派息0.23元，年度现金分红比例为30%(2022年：30%)，股息率为5.54%(2024/3/28)。鉴于资产持续增长，我们预测2024-26年EPS为0.79/0.83/0.84元，预测...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403291000148b700691&s=b><strong>华泰证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>县域稳步发力，资产增长持续2023年归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP分别同比+3.9%(重述)、持平(重述)、-3.8%(重述)，增速较前三季度-1.1pct、+0.6pct、-0.7pct。2023年拟每股派息0.23元，年度现金分红比例为30%(2022年：30%)，股息率为5.54%(2024/3/28)。鉴于资产持续增长，我们预测2024-26年EPS为0.79/0.83/0.84元，预测...</p>\n\n<a 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continued","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"601288":0.9},"content_text":"县域稳步发力，资产增长持续2023年归母净利润、营业收入、PPOP分别同比+3.9%(重述)、持平(重述)、-3.8%(重述)，增速较前三季度-1.1pct、+0.6pct、-0.7pct。2023年拟每股派息0.23元，年度现金分红比例为30%(2022年：30%)，股息率为5.54%(2024/3/28)。鉴于资产持续增长，我们预测2024-26年EPS为0.79/0.83/0.84元，预测24年BVPS为7.45元，A/H股对应PB0.56/0.41倍。A/H股可比公司24年Wind一致预期PB0.53/0.36倍，公司县域金融特色突出，应享一定估值溢价，我们给予A/H股24年目标PB0.70/0.55倍，A/H股目标价5.22元/4.44港币，A股维持“增持”评级，H股维持“买入”评级。资产增长持续，县域战略深化23年末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+17.5%、+14.5%、+15.0%，较9月末+3.1pct、-0.8pct、-0.8pct。23年末公司类贷款/零售类贷款在总贷款中占比分别为57%/36%。公司持续推动重点领域信贷投放，23年末普惠小微贷款客户突破300万户，县域存、贷款余额分别为12.33万亿元、8.78万亿元，同比分别+14.2%、+19.8%。公司秉承服务“三农”的初心，县域金融业务稳步发力，加大县域资源倾斜，2023年县域金融业务在营收中贡献达47.7%，较22年+2.0pct。其他非息高增，息差降幅收窄2023年净息差为1.60%，较前三季度-2bp(前三季度较上半年-4bp)。2023年生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率分别为3.41%、1.96%，较上半年-2bp、+2bp。2023年贷款收益率、存款成本率分别为3.79%、1.78%，较上半年-8bp、+1bp。存款定期化趋势仍显著，23年末活期存款率同比-5.6pct至42.9%。2023年非息收入同比+17.48%，较前三季度+4.5pct。2023年中收同比-1.5%，较前三季度-0.6pct。2023年其他非息收入同比+83.0%，增速较前三季度显著提升25.1pct，主要由于以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融工具收益增加，以及外汇相关业务产生汇兑收益。资产质量向好，夯实资本水平23年末不良率、拨备覆盖率分别为1.33%、304%，较9月末-2bp、持平，资产质量持续向好。23年末关注类贷款占比较6月末+3bp，隐性风险指标略有波动。经测算公司23Q4年化不良生成率为0.65%，较23Q3提升0.32pct。23Q4年化信用成本为0.11%，同比+7bp。23年末资本充足率、核心一级资本充足率分别为17.14%、10.72%，较9月末+0.52pct、+0.28pct，夯实资本水平。风险提示：经济修复力度不及预期，资产质量恶化超预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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