为什么七巨头的“势头正在崩溃”

环球市场播报04-23

过去一年推动股市上涨的7只股票的涨势可能已经结束。　　瑞银集团投资银行（UBS Investment Bank）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森•戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）周一在一份新的研究报告中，将苹果（Apple）、谷歌（google， GOOG）、微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（Amazon）、Meta和英伟达（Nvidia）”七巨头”中的6只评级从增持下调至中性。　　他发出这一呼吁之际，...

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Bank）首席美国股票策略师乔纳森•戈卢布（Jonathan Golub）周一在一份新的研究报告中，将苹果（Apple）、谷歌（google， GOOG）、微软（MSFT）、亚马逊（Amazon）、Meta和英伟达（Nvidia）”七巨头”中的6只评级从增持下调至中性。\n　　他发出这一呼吁之际，包括特斯拉（Tesla）在内的壮丽七巨头刚刚经历了历史上最大的周市值损失。所有七家大型科技巨头都从近期高点回落，英伟达周五单日跌幅为10%，为2020年3月以来最糟糕的单日价格表现。\n　　Golub评级标准普尔500指数内的行业，而不是个股，在他的报告中提到的6只股票之外，他仍然增持科技股。\n　　但对于过去一年盈利大幅增长的大公司来说，Golub认为，潮流可能正在转变，其他领域的表现将超过标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）中最大的股票。\n　　Golub写道：”我们将六大评级从增持下调至中性，并不是基于扩大估值或对人工智能的怀疑。”\n\n　　相反，这是对这些股票面临的困难和周期性力量的承认。这些力量并不以同样的方式适用于其他科技+公司或市场其他部分。”\n　　标普500指数成份股公司的盈利在很大程度上是由大型科技公司的利润增长推动的。预计这将在第一季度的报告中再次出现，FactSet预计亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软和英伟达的盈利增长将结合起来，约为64%。与此同时，标准普尔500指数的其他495家公司预计将公布利润下降6%。\n　　但在今年的时间里，这种情况预计将发生变化。\n　　FactSet的一致预期显示，这五家公司今年第四季度的利润同比增长将略低于20%，反映出增长速度明显低于之前的水平。\n　　到那时，共识预计其他495家公司的盈利将比前一年增长约17%，比目前的增长率显着上升。\n　　Golub写道：”投资者将大盘股的上涨归因于生物本能和人工智能的影响。””然而，我们的工作表明，盈利势头的飙升（远期增长预测的变化）推动了这一上行趋势。不幸的是，这种势头正在崩溃。”\n　　特斯拉、Meta、微软和谷歌预计将于本周晚些时候公布季度业绩。\n\n　　Golub补充说，这种收入增长的转变可能”在短期内具有破坏性”。\n　　但鉴于越来越多的迹象表明，美国经济今年的增长速度快于预期，Golub认为，未来一年盈利表现的扩大，使他继续呼吁标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）在年底达到5400点。周一下午，该基准指数的交易价格略低于5000点。\n　　Golub写道：”这一目标仍然得到了广泛积极的基本面和强劲的经济的支持。\n\n”\n\n股市回暖，抄底炒股先开户！智能定投、条件单、个股雷达……送给你>>\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨淳端","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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