ASMPT(00522)TCB先进封装前景乐观，HBM用量有望显著提升

开源证券04-25

传统封装尚在复苏起点，AI先进封装仍是持久主线，维持“买入”评级尽管2024年传统封装业务景气度欠佳、但TCB设备出货量有望显著高于2023年、且TCB设备价值量及利润率显著高于传统封装业务，从而有望驱动2024年整体净利润回升。我们预计TCB设备于2025-2026年有望继续快速放量，同时传统封装业务景气回升、经营杠杆显著驱动盈利能力改善，有望驱动2025-2026年净利润高成长。考虑到传统封装...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2430471918?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2024-04-25 17:14","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2430471918","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"ASMPT(00522)TCB先进封装前景乐观，HBM用量有望显著提升","media":"开源证券","content":"<div>\n<p>传统封装尚在复苏起点，AI先进封装仍是持久主线，维持“买入”评级尽管2024年传统封装业务景气度欠佳、但TCB设备出货量有望显著高于2023年、且TCB设备价值量及利润率显著高于传统封装业务，从而有望驱动2024年整体净利润回升。我们预计TCB设备于2025-2026年有望继续快速放量，同时传统封装业务景气回升、经营杠杆显著驱动盈利能力改善，有望驱动2025-2026年净利润高成长。考虑到传统封装...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024042517304987ae938b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASMPT(00522)TCB先进封装前景乐观，HBM用量有望显著提升</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASMPT(00522)TCB先进封装前景乐观，HBM用量有望显著提升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-25 17:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024042517304987ae938b&s=b><strong>开源证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>传统封装尚在复苏起点，AI先进封装仍是持久主线，维持“买入”评级尽管2024年传统封装业务景气度欠佳、但TCB设备出货量有望显著高于2023年、且TCB设备价值量及利润率显著高于传统封装业务，从而有望驱动2024年整体净利润回升。我们预计TCB设备于2025-2026年有望继续快速放量，同时传统封装业务景气回升、经营杠杆显著驱动盈利能力改善，有望驱动2025-2026年净利润高成长。考虑到传统封装...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024042517304987ae938b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0348825331.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024042517304987ae938b&s=b","article_id":"2430471918","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN2024042517304987ae938b&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2430471918","pubTimestamp":1714036440,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"传统封装尚在复苏起点，AI先进封装仍是持久主线，维持“买入”评级尽管2024年传统封装业务景气度欠佳、但TCB设备出货量有望显著高于2023年、且TCB设备价值量及利润率显著高于传统封装业务，从而有望驱动2024年整体净利润回升。公司用于12hiHBM的TCB已经在生产交付，伴随12hiHBM的大规模应用，TCB设备有望在2025年继续放量。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0417516571.SGD":"Allianz Oriental Income Cl AT Acc SGD","LU2039709279.SGD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH \"AA\" (SGDHDG) INC","00522":"ASMPT","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1169":"半导体设备","LU0348783233.USD":"安联东方收入型 CI A Dis美元","LU0348784397.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417516902.SGD":"Allianz China Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"The prospect of ASMPT (00522) TCB advanced packaging is optimistic, and the consumption of HBM is expected to increase significantly","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"00522":1},"content_text":"传统封装尚在复苏起点，AI先进封装仍是持久主线，维持“买入”评级尽管2024年传统封装业务景气度欠佳、但TCB设备出货量有望显著高于2023年、且TCB设备价值量及利润率显著高于传统封装业务，从而有望驱动2024年整体净利润回升。我们预计TCB设备于2025-2026年有望继续快速放量，同时传统封装业务景气回升、经营杠杆显著驱动盈利能力改善，有望驱动2025-2026年净利润高成长。考虑到传统封装复苏节奏上不明朗、以及先进封装TCB设备放量趋势超预期的综合影响，我们将2024年归母净利润预测由11亿港币下调至10亿港币，维持2025年归母净利润预测20亿港币，将2026年归母净利润预测由19亿港币上调至27亿港币，对应同比增速35.8%/109.6%/31.7%，当前股价102.3港币对应2024-2026年PE分别为43.4/20.7/15.7倍PE，维持“买入”评级。先进封装有望驱动2024Q2收入环比改善，传统封装复苏力度有待观察2024Q1收入4.01亿美金，环比下滑8%，落在指引区间3.7-4.3亿美金。其中半导体解决方案分部环比下滑14%，SMT业务环比下滑3%。2024Q1公司新增订单4.09亿美金，环比增长17%，公司指引2024Q2收入在3.8-4.4亿美金收入区间，按中位数环比增长2.2%，我们分析主要由先进封装拉动，而传统封装复苏能见度仍然较低，2024年全年复苏节奏有待观察。公司TCB设备具备技术领先优势，在逻辑和存储客户进展超预期公司擅长的TCB设备有望迎来快速放量趋势，不管是逻辑客户的C2W环节还是存储客户12hiHBM的大规模应用TCB的前景均更加明朗。(1)逻辑客户：伴随芯片性能提升，公司预期未来C2W环节也有望采用TCB设备，C2W环节所需TCB数量更高、且由于精度控制要求更高对应更高价值量。(2)存储客户：由于HBM正由8hi向12hi、16hi发展，对应I/O密度提高以及芯片更薄，传统MR方案面临瓶颈，有望向TCB设备迁移。公司用于12hiHBM的TCB已经在生产交付，伴随12hiHBM的大规模应用，TCB设备有望在2025年继续放量。风险提示：先进封装设备研发推迟、景气复苏不及预期、需求升级不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430471918"}