李宁(2331.HK)：流水符合预期 H1预计承压

长江证券04-30

事件描述公司发布2024Q1 流水数据，Q1 全渠道流水（不包括李宁young）同比低单位数增长，基本符合预期，其中直营/批发/电商渠道流水分别同比中单位数增长/中单位数下滑/20%-30%低段增长，同店维度来看（不包括李宁young），直营/批发/电商渠道分别同比低单位数下滑/中双位数下滑/20%-30%低段增长。事件评论电商渠道表现较优，奥莱拉动直营增长。Q1 电商渠道流水同比增长20%-...

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HK): The turnover is in line with expectations, and H1 is expected to be under pressure","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82331":0.6,"02331":1,"LNNGY":0.6},"content_text":"事件描述公司发布2024Q1 流水数据，Q1 全渠道流水（不包括李宁young）同比低单位数增长，基本符合预期，其中直营/批发/电商渠道流水分别同比中单位数增长/中单位数下滑/20%-30%低段增长，同店维度来看（不包括李宁young），直营/批发/电商渠道分别同比低单位数下滑/中双位数下滑/20%-30%低段增长。事件评论电商渠道表现较优，奥莱拉动直营增长。Q1 电商渠道流水同比增长20%-30%低段，预计主因2023Q1 电商基数较低以及得物、抖音等新兴电商平台高增拉动。线下直营渠道流水同比中单位数增长（同店同比低单位数下滑），加盟渠道流水同比中单位数下滑（同店同比中双位数下滑），预计奥莱渠道表现较优带动直营增速显著高于加盟，而正价店与加盟店同店增速预计差异不大均有所承压。库存同比改善，折扣有待修复。预计Q1 公司全渠道库销比略高于4，同比有所改善。但考虑公司流水增速低于同行，较弱零售增速下预计线下折扣为6-7 折高段，预计折扣水平仍弱于同行，折扣后续仍有待进一步修复。跑鞋延续高增，篮球有待调整。品类维度来看，Q1 公司跑步经典系列赤兔、超轻和飞电系列新品带动销售，跑步行业高景气度、公司自身强化产品力及优化产品矩阵下，预计李宁Q1 跑步品类仍维持同比20%+流水增长。但篮球鞋行业需求仍较为疲软，预计公司作为行业龙头亦短期面临挑战，预计Q1 延续下滑趋势。短期来看，月度零售改善仍需时间验证，预计Q2 不低基数下公司流水仍偏疲软，H1 高基数下收入&业绩有所承压。但H2 零售基数走低，加盟商库存压力不大下，后续有望通过拓改店发货带动流水提速增长，业绩端低基数下亦存在较优弹性。中长期看，公司仍为产品力&品牌力最强的国产品牌，高线城市店效提升&下沉市场开拓仍有空间。综合预计公司2024-2026 年实现归母净利32.4/36.5/40.5 亿元，同比增长+2%/+13%/+11%，对应PE 为14/13/12X，估值处于底部位置，维持“买入”评级。风险提示1、 下沉市场拓展不及预期；2、 专业运动品类增速不及预期；3、 零售流水增长不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2431790588"}