招商银行(600036)：盈利探底期待回暖

浙商证券股份有...05-01

投资要点招行24Q1 盈利增速继续探底，全年盈利增速有望企稳。数据概览招商银行24Q1 归母净利润同比下降2.0%，营收同比下降4.7%，盈利增速继续下探。招商银行24Q1 末不良率为0.92%，较23Q4 末改善3bp；拨备覆盖率较23Q4 末下降1pc 至437%。盈利增速继续探底招行24Q1 归母净利润、营收同比分别下降2.0%、4.7%，增速环比分别下降8.2pc、3.0pc，利润增速转负...

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202405011113498b689f72&s=b><strong>浙商证券股份有...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资要点招行24Q1 盈利增速继续探底，全年盈利增速有望企稳。数据概览招商银行24Q1 归母净利润同比下降2.0%，营收同比下降4.7%，盈利增速继续下探。招商银行24Q1 末不良率为0.92%，较23Q4 末改善3bp；拨备覆盖率较23Q4 末下降1pc 至437%。盈利增速继续探底招行24Q1 归母净利润、营收同比分别下降2.0%、4.7%，增速环比分别下降8.2pc、3.0pc，利润增速转负...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202405011113498b689f72&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0708995153.HKD","symbol_name":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (HKD) 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至0.44%、1.56%，其中，信用卡不良生成率同比大幅改善48bp 至4.26%。盈利预测与估值预计招商银行2024-2026 年归母净利润同比增长1.52%/4.37%/5.09%，对应BPS40.64/44.62/48.82 元。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600036":"招商银行","LU0708995153.HKD":"TEMPLETON EMERGING MARKETS \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK0015":"沪股通50","BK0010":"央企","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK0028":"国家队","LU1064131003.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0543330566.HKD":"TEMPLETON BRIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1781817850.SGD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 SGD-H","LU1048596156.SGD":"Blackrock Asian Growth Leaders A2 SGD-H","LU1580142542.USD":"Blackrock Systematic China A-Share Opportunities A2 USD","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","LU1064130708.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - CHINA A EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK0070":"员工持股","LU2328871848.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - China A Shares Growth AS 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SICAV I - China A Share Equity A Acc SGD-H","LU0320764243.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Emerging Markets A Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"China Merchants Bank (600036): Profit bottoming out and looking forward to recovery","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600036":1},"content_text":"投资要点招行24Q1 盈利增速继续探底，全年盈利增速有望企稳。数据概览招商银行24Q1 归母净利润同比下降2.0%，营收同比下降4.7%，盈利增速继续下探。招商银行24Q1 末不良率为0.92%，较23Q4 末改善3bp；拨备覆盖率较23Q4 末下降1pc 至437%。盈利增速继续探底招行24Q1 归母净利润、营收同比分别下降2.0%、4.7%，增速环比分别下降8.2pc、3.0pc，利润增速转负，和大型银行趋势保持基本一致。驱动因素来看，主要归因息差拖累加大、减值支撑减弱。（1）息差：24Q1 单季日均息差环比下行2bp 至2.02%，叠加23Q1 高基数影响，息差拖累大幅加大。（2）减值：24Q1减值损失同比下降13%，降幅环比收窄15pc，对盈利的支撑作用有所减弱。展望全年，招行盈利探底后有望企稳。主要考虑：（1）息差同期基数Q2 开始快速走低，息差对盈利的拖累有望企稳；（2）信用卡、地产等领域的风险暴露企稳，叠加拨备水平充足，减值有望继续支撑盈利。息差水平环比下降招行24Q1 日均息差环比微降2bp 至2.02%，主要归因资产端收益率下行。（1）资产端收益率环比下降2bp 至3.65%，主要归因金融市场利率走低影响。24Q1 贷款利率环比微降1bp 至4.07%，贷款降幅企稳；债券投资、同业资产利率环比分别-4bp、-14bp 至3.17%、3.09%。（2）负债端成本率环比持平于1.75%。其中，招行存款成本边际小幅改善。24Q1 招行存款利率环比微降1bp 至1.63%，2021 年以来存款利率首次下行，判断得益于存款降息红利释放，叠加存款成本管控发力。展望未来，受LPR 降息、信贷需求疲弱影响，预计招行息差仍面临下行压力。重点领域风险改善存量指标来看，招行24Q1 末不良率、关注率、逾期率环比年初分别-3bp、+5bp、+5bp 至0.92%、1.14%、1.31%。关注率、逾期率波动，主要归因零售存量风险指标继续上行。24Q1 末，零售贷款关注率、逾期率环比+5bp、+10bp 至1.50%、1.51%，零售中，主要压力点在信用卡，24Q1 末，信用卡关注率、逾期率环比分别+17bp、+34bp 至3.53%、3.53%。生成指标来看，信用卡风险生成压力已高位回落。24Q1 招行对公、零售不良生成率同比分别-3bp、-10bp 至0.44%、1.56%，其中，信用卡不良生成率同比大幅改善48bp 至4.26%。地产领域来看，地产风险指标继续改善，24Q1 末招行地产不良率4.82%，较23Q4 末下降19bp。盈利预测与估值预计招商银行2024-2026 年归母净利润同比增长1.52%/4.37%/5.09%，对应BPS40.64/44.62/48.82 元。现价对应PB 0.86/0.78/0.71 倍。给予目标估值2024 年PB1.00x，对应目标价40.64 元/股，现价空间17%，维持“买入”评级。风险提示：宏观经济失速，不良大幅暴露。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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招商银行(600036)：盈利探底 期待回暖

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招商银行(600036)：盈利探底期待回暖