吴海波
2020-11-09
只好看涨,美股太牛
@小虎活动:
【有奖竞猜】大选落地,预测标普一周涨跌幅!
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tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p> <p>在过去五个交易日中的四个交易日上涨后,标普500指数距离9月初创下的纪录高位还有2%。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a></p> <p><b>拜登当选的影响</b></p> <p>分析称,短期内,大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜,民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪;</p> <p>中长期内,对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭,美国政府进入加税周期,财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降,美联储可能提前结束降息周期,这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。</p> <p>拜登的政策主张主要包括:1.推动财政刺激;2.收紧抗疫措施;3.支持气候项目和基建政策;4.支持增强金融监管;5.偏向于加税;6.外交上,减少对抗性政策,重启伊朗谈判。</p> <p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0011c39b0d7daee54690c288dcee206\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"508\"></p> <p>确定性比较强的是会收紧抗疫措施,阶段性利好云、电商等疫情概念股;以及加大扶持新能源的政策,主要利好以特斯拉为代表的新能源。</p> <p>拜登当选美国总统并减少对抗性政策的可能性,短期放大非美资产吸引力,不过这部分对非美权益资产的影响原本也不大了。</p> <p>更有华尔街分析师喊出,政治和经济环境支撑标普500指数在未来12个月至少升至3,800点。</p> <p><b>最后</b></p> <p>虎友们怎么看大选落地后,本周<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 走势?欢迎评论区留言你的观点。</p> <p><span style=\"color:rgba(255,130,0,1);\"><b>戳下方</b></span>参与投票竞猜↓↓,成功预测更有66虎币奖励!</p> <p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\" target=\"_blank\">$SP500指数主连(ESmain)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/YMmain\" target=\"_blank\">$道琼斯指数主连(YMmain)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\" target=\"_blank\">$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$ </a></p></body></html>","text":"周末多家美媒宣布拜登赢得美国大选,约翰逊、默克尔、马克龙等多国政要也祝贺拜登胜选。 尽管美国现任总统特朗普表示选举远没有结束,按照主流舆论的预测,拜登当选几乎已经十拿九稳。 于是我们更关心的是,拜登当选将如何影响美股大盘呢? 回顾上周 美国股票指数上周成为4月份以来表现最好的一周,未受某些股市估值处在二十年最高水平,以及新冠疫情反弹的影响。 在过去五个交易日中的四个交易日上涨后,标普500指数距离9月初创下的纪录高位还有2%。$标普500(.SPX)$ 拜登当选的影响 分析称,短期内,大选结果的最终落地都有利于全球风险偏好的回升。拜登获胜,民主党人主导的大规模财政刺激计划落地预期将会提振市场情绪; 中长期内,对待税收的态度及利率变化是关键变量。拜登逆袭,美国政府进入加税周期,财政赤字减少下对通胀容忍度下降,美联储可能提前结束降息周期,这对美股的 EPS及估值均可能造成杀伤。 拜登的政策主张主要包括:1.推动财政刺激;2.收紧抗疫措施;3.支持气候项目和基建政策;4.支持增强金融监管;5.偏向于加税;6.外交上,减少对抗性政策,重启伊朗谈判。 确定性比较强的是会收紧抗疫措施,阶段性利好云、电商等疫情概念股;以及加大扶持新能源的政策,主要利好以特斯拉为代表的新能源。 拜登当选美国总统并减少对抗性政策的可能性,短期放大非美资产吸引力,不过这部分对非美权益资产的影响原本也不大了。 更有华尔街分析师喊出,政治和经济环境支撑标普500指数在未来12个月至少升至3,800点。 最后 虎友们怎么看大选落地后,本周$标普500(.SPX)$ 走势?欢迎评论区留言你的观点。 戳下方参与投票竞猜↓↓,成功预测更有66虎币奖励! 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