鲍威尔的发言其实是偏_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

yuripapa

2019-06-04

鲍威尔的发言其实是偏鹰派的，如果我站在他的立场，在美国就业数据尚可，企业债庞大的情况下动用降息工具是需谨慎的。

较市场预期鹰派的态度也反映在讲话后美元指数和黄金等贵金属的波动上了，那美股在今日的上涨应该就就是触及日线和周线超卖指标后的反弹(当然今天有个墨西哥可能达成协议的利好)，或许会维持几天日线级别反弹但长远存疑。

看了下恒指夜期和港股蓝筹adr的走势，并没有跟随美股大盘而大幅反弹，看之后会不会验证我的猜测。

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$

市场大事

宏观大事，市场动态

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

交易员Owen
2019-06-06
交易员Owen
有俩网站，推荐关注一下：https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&optionProductId=4这个是芝商所的美联储利率观察工具，https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&optionProductId=4这个是欧洲美元期货行情，这两个都是直接反应市场对美联储利率估计的工具，欧洲美元期货这个价格越高，证明利率将越低，当超出合理的远期对近期升水幅度后，就是曲线变得陡峭了，就证明利率会被干预下降，现在这俩市场预期还是会降的，而且会降两次。
交易员Owen
2019-06-06
交易员Owen
相比而言，欧美元期货流动性要远大于联邦基金利率期货，所以这个更好用，其他的品种来判断利率，会被其他因素干扰，可能效果没这俩好。😄
- yuripapa回复交易员Owen:
  原来是这样，谢谢科普，我之前只是简单的看作汇率衍生品
- 交易员Owen回复yuripapa:
  欧洲美元期货，主要反应的是存放在欧洲银行里的美元他的实际收益率，是全球投资者综合美国相对于欧洲市场的经济表现，对美元的定价，他的影响因素更大了，不过欧元和美元历来相关性都非常强，是一对反指，所以欧洲美元期货的交易量非常大，通常用来对冲汇率市场的风险，他来衡量美元的涨跌也相对其他指标更准一些，我认为这个比芝加哥联邦利率期货反应的问题还要准确的。
- yuripapa:
  收到，但有个疑问，欧美会否被非美联储利率因素干扰，比如欧央行货币政策，欧元区经济数据，突发事件，比如英国脱欧。我之前也参考欧美，但主要用于观察美元指数来做黄金投资参考
yuripapa
2019-06-05
yuripapa
日盘亚市有点如我所料，抛砖引玉等欧文兄的解读@Owen交易室
DAYDAYUP
2019-06-05
DAYDAYUP
只看了昨天的演讲视频没感受到什么方向性指引
tommyhackman
2019-06-05
tommyhackman
空头短期内做t逃过日线上涨

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"detailType":1,"isChannel":false,"data":{"magic":2,"id":902292064,"tweetId":"902292064","gmtCreate":1559660863658,"gmtModify":1704698774987,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"authorIdStr":"3493972647236492","name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"userType":1,"introduction":"","boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[],"starInvestorFlag":false},"themes":[{"themeId":"309c7f94260944df9570069109a44aae","categoryId":"bc7f9e79615545918dda2e7d7cfb9e15","name":"市场大事","type":0,"rnLink":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNTheme&page=/theme/detail&rndata={\"themeId\":309c7f94260944df9570069109a44aae}&rnconfig={\"headerBarHidden\": true}","description":"宏观大事，市场动态","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9eaf0bfce8dcfc7bf515f26e2cfe3f9e"}],"images":[],"coverImages":[],"extraTitle":"","html":"<html><head></head><body>鲍威尔的发言其实是偏鹰派的，如果我站在他的立场，在美国就业数据尚可，企业债庞大的情况下动用降息工具是需谨慎的。 较市场预期鹰派的态度也反映在讲话后美元指数和黄金等贵金属的波动上了，那美股在今日的上涨应该就就是触及日线和周线超卖指标后的反弹(当然今天有个墨西哥可能达成协议的利好)，或许会维持几天日线级别反弹但长远存疑。 看了下恒指夜期和港股蓝筹adr的走势，并没有跟随美股大盘而大幅反弹，看之后会不会验证我的猜测。 $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$</body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body>鲍威尔的发言其实是偏鹰派的，如果我站在他的立场，在美国就业数据尚可，企业债庞大的情况下动用降息工具是需谨慎的。 较市场预期鹰派的态度也反映在讲话后美元指数和黄金等贵金属的波动上了，那美股在今日的上涨应该就就是触及日线和周线超卖指标后的反弹(当然今天有个墨西哥可能达成协议的利好)，或许会维持几天日线级别反弹但长远存疑。 看了下恒指夜期和港股蓝筹adr的走势，并没有跟随美股大盘而大幅反弹，看之后会不会验证我的猜测。 $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$</body></html>","text":"鲍威尔的发言其实是偏鹰派的，如果我站在他的立场，在美国就业数据尚可，企业债庞大的情况下动用降息工具是需谨慎的。 较市场预期鹰派的态度也反映在讲话后美元指数和黄金等贵金属的波动上了，那美股在今日的上涨应该就就是触及日线和周线超卖指标后的反弹(当然今天有个墨西哥可能达成协议的利好)，或许会维持几天日线级别反弹但长远存疑。 看了下恒指夜期和港股蓝筹adr的走势，并没有跟随美股大盘而大幅反弹，看之后会不会验证我的猜测。 $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $恒生指数(HSI)$$老虎证券(TIGR)$","highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/902292064","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5213,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[".DJI","TIGR",".IXIC","HSI"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":457,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[{"id":1618165,"gmtCreate":1559793517192,"gmtModify":1559793517192,"authorId":3491416357875149,"author":{"id":3491416357875149,"authorId":3491416357875149,"name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"有俩网站，推荐关注一下：https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是芝商所的美联储利率观察工具，https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是欧洲美元期货行情，这两个都是直接反应市场对美联储利率估计的工具，欧洲美元期货这个价格越高，证明利率将越低，当超出合理的远期对近期升水幅度后，就是曲线变得陡峭了，就证明利率会被干预下降，现在这俩市场预期还是会降的，而且会降两次。","text":"有俩网站，推荐关注一下：https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是芝商所的美联储利率观察工具，https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是欧洲美元期货行情，这两个都是直接反应市场对美联储利率估计的工具，欧洲美元期货这个价格越高，证明利率将越低，当超出合理的远期对近期升水幅度后，就是曲线变得陡峭了，就证明利率会被干预下降，现在这俩市场预期还是会降的，而且会降两次。","html":"有俩网站，推荐关注一下：https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是芝商所的美联储利率观察工具，https://www.cmegroup.com/cn-s/trading/interest-rates/stir/eurodollar_quotes_globex.html?optionExpiration=4-F9&amp;optionProductId=4这个是欧洲美元期货行情，这两个都是直接反应市场对美联储利率估计的工具，欧洲美元期货这个价格越高，证明利率将越低，当超出合理的远期对近期升水幅度后，就是曲线变得陡峭了，就证明利率会被干预下降，现在这俩市场预期还是会降的，而且会降两次。","likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1618170,"gmtCreate":1559793622553,"gmtModify":1559793622553,"authorId":3491416357875149,"author":{"id":3491416357875149,"authorId":3491416357875149,"name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"相比而言，欧美元期货流动性要远大于联邦基金利率期货，所以这个更好用，其他的品种来判断利率，会被其他因素干扰，可能效果没这俩好。😄","text":"相比而言，欧美元期货流动性要远大于联邦基金利率期货，所以这个更好用，其他的品种来判断利率，会被其他因素干扰，可能效果没这俩好。😄","html":"相比而言，欧美元期货流动性要远大于联邦基金利率期货，所以这个更好用，其他的品种来判断利率，会被其他因素干扰，可能效果没这俩好。😄","likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"subComments":[{"id":1627195,"gmtCreate":1560167723927,"gmtModify":1560167762316,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3491416357875149,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3491416357875149,"authorId":3491416357875149,"name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":1618170,"prevId":1626277,"content":"原来是这样，谢谢科普，我之前只是简单的看作汇率衍生品","text":"原来是这样，谢谢科普，我之前只是简单的看作汇率衍生品","html":"原来是这样，谢谢科普，我之前只是简单的看作汇率衍生品"},{"id":1626277,"gmtCreate":1560148476823,"gmtModify":1560148476823,"authorId":3491416357875149,"author":{"id":3491416357875149,"authorId":3491416357875149,"name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","vip":2,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.18","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":3493972647236492,"repliedAuthor":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":1618170,"prevId":1619027,"content":"欧洲美元期货，主要反应的是存放在欧洲银行里的美元他的实际收益率，是全球投资者综合美国相对于欧洲市场的经济表现，对美元的定价，他的影响因素更大了，不过欧元和美元历来相关性都非常强，是一对反指，所以欧洲美元期货的交易量非常大，通常用来对冲汇率市场的风险，他来衡量美元的涨跌也相对其他指标更准一些，我认为这个比芝加哥联邦利率期货反应的问题还要准确的。","text":"欧洲美元期货，主要反应的是存放在欧洲银行里的美元他的实际收益率，是全球投资者综合美国相对于欧洲市场的经济表现，对美元的定价，他的影响因素更大了，不过欧元和美元历来相关性都非常强，是一对反指，所以欧洲美元期货的交易量非常大，通常用来对冲汇率市场的风险，他来衡量美元的涨跌也相对其他指标更准一些，我认为这个比芝加哥联邦利率期货反应的问题还要准确的。","html":"欧洲美元期货，主要反应的是存放在欧洲银行里的美元他的实际收益率，是全球投资者综合美国相对于欧洲市场的经济表现，对美元的定价，他的影响因素更大了，不过欧元和美元历来相关性都非常强，是一对反指，所以欧洲美元期货的交易量非常大，通常用来对冲汇率市场的风险，他来衡量美元的涨跌也相对其他指标更准一些，我认为这个比芝加哥联邦利率期货反应的问题还要准确的。"},{"id":1619027,"gmtCreate":1559814805779,"gmtModify":1559815422809,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":1618170,"prevId":0,"content":"收到，但有个疑问，欧美会否被非美联储利率因素干扰，比如欧央行货币政策，欧元区经济数据，突发事件，比如英国脱欧。我之前也参考欧美，但主要用于观察美元指数来做黄金投资参考","text":"收到，但有个疑问，欧美会否被非美联储利率因素干扰，比如欧央行货币政策，欧元区经济数据，突发事件，比如英国脱欧。我之前也参考欧美，但主要用于观察美元指数来做黄金投资参考","html":"收到，但有个疑问，欧美会否被非美联储利率因素干扰，比如欧央行货币政策，欧元区经济数据，突发事件，比如英国脱欧。我之前也参考欧美，但主要用于观察美元指数来做黄金投资参考"}],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1615237,"gmtCreate":1559719186199,"gmtModify":1559719186199,"authorId":3493972647236492,"author":{"id":3493972647236492,"authorId":3493972647236492,"name":"yuripapa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c5d74bc05fe5455fec398da15a1fda9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"日盘亚市有点如我所料，抛砖引玉等欧文兄的解读@Owen交易室","text":"日盘亚市有点如我所料，抛砖引玉等欧文兄的解读@Owen交易室","html":"日盘亚市有点如我所料，抛砖引玉等欧文兄的解读@Owen交易室","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1615083,"gmtCreate":1559713158326,"gmtModify":1559713158326,"authorId":3439793453271303,"author":{"id":3439793453271303,"authorId":3439793453271303,"name":"DAYDAYUP","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4691e8e74e1762bce01cb5b07a8992e","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"只看了昨天的演讲视频 没感受到什么方向性指引","text":"只看了昨天的演讲视频 没感受到什么方向性指引","html":"只看了昨天的演讲视频 没感受到什么方向性指引","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0},{"id":1614839,"gmtCreate":1559703907134,"gmtModify":1559703907134,"authorId":3498546164340700,"author":{"id":3498546164340700,"authorId":3498546164340700,"name":"tommyhackman","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":902292064,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"空头短期内做t逃过日线上涨","text":"空头短期内做t逃过日线上涨","html":"空头短期内做t逃过日线上涨","likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"subComments":[],"verified":10,"allocateAmount":0,"commentType":"valid","coins":0,"score":0}],"isCommentEnd":false,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/902292064"}