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先翻个1000倍
2020-03-13
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@Ivan_甘灿荣:原油黑天鹅兑现，WTI油价可能到25
先翻个1000倍
2019-07-10
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
一泻千里 卖早了
先翻个1000倍
2019-07-09
快下来吧
$微软(MSFT)$
先翻个1000倍
2019-06-29
$FUT:微型NQ100指数主连(MNQmain)$ 看跌
先翻个1000倍
2019-06-22
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 立个flag，翻倍
先翻个1000倍
2019-06-22
任总牛逼！
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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最近一个月说股指比较多，其它商品的篇幅少了，那么最近就跟大家详细讲讲原油。因为与月底有我在老虎社区的直播课，到时候再跟大家详细讲讲股指方面的内容了。 一、原油分析 “原油从65美元开始算，运气好的话，跌三分一到45美元；运气不好的话，跌剩三分之一到25美元”。 这是我从去年到现在，无论是线下课，财经专访，写<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/916038828\" target=\"_blank\">《2020前瞻 暴跌的原油》</a>帖时一直反复强调的一句话。这句话是有根据的，不过在此之前先探讨一下这周的最重磅事件–减产联盟崩塌。 自2016-17年开始，沙特就联手俄罗斯一起减产，担起了支撑油价的责任。但是持续的减产也只是勉强将油价支撑在50美元附近，持续加码的减产迟早会触动某些成员国的核心利益，进而造成联盟松动，那么为什么俄罗斯就不肯加深减产呢？众说纷纭，我也不好猜测，只能罗列一种可能性，就是俄罗斯的市场份额可能在下降。 我们要知道当前世界最大的产油国不是沙特和俄罗斯，而是美国。当OPEC和俄罗斯不断减产支撑油价的时候，美国还在不断增产。如图： 根据CME和EIA的数据，可以看出美国页岩油的产量在2020年1月时仍在节节攀升。为何美国原油仍大幅增产？原因只有一个成本低。 上图是美国页岩油维持生产的成本价，当油价在50美元以上时，大部分页岩油商都有增产动力，只有油价跌至30美元以下时，这部分动力就会消失甚至减产。所以对应前文，为何我认为油价最悲观的预期会跌至25美元/桶，就是基于此。（通过一些技术手段统计原油历史数据分析可知，通常这种原油价格因重大事件或各国斗抢份额所导致大跌，往往跌幅都是跌剩3分1的） 二、策略 1、做空原油期货 在没有其它衍生工具选择的情况下，期货是最简单直接的。设定止损，做空原油期货。由于波动很大，所以即使您做","listText":"前言 最近一个月说股指比较多，其它商品的篇幅少了，那么最近就跟大家详细讲讲原油。因为与月底有我在老虎社区的直播课，到时候再跟大家详细讲讲股指方面的内容了。 一、原油分析 “原油从65美元开始算，运气好的话，跌三分一到45美元；运气不好的话，跌剩三分之一到25美元”。 这是我从去年到现在，无论是线下课，财经专访，写<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/916038828\" target=\"_blank\">《2020前瞻 暴跌的原油》</a>帖时一直反复强调的一句话。这句话是有根据的，不过在此之前先探讨一下这周的最重磅事件–减产联盟崩塌。 自2016-17年开始，沙特就联手俄罗斯一起减产，担起了支撑油价的责任。但是持续的减产也只是勉强将油价支撑在50美元附近，持续加码的减产迟早会触动某些成员国的核心利益，进而造成联盟松动，那么为什么俄罗斯就不肯加深减产呢？众说纷纭，我也不好猜测，只能罗列一种可能性，就是俄罗斯的市场份额可能在下降。 我们要知道当前世界最大的产油国不是沙特和俄罗斯，而是美国。当OPEC和俄罗斯不断减产支撑油价的时候，美国还在不断增产。如图： 根据CME和EIA的数据，可以看出美国页岩油的产量在2020年1月时仍在节节攀升。为何美国原油仍大幅增产？原因只有一个成本低。 上图是美国页岩油维持生产的成本价，当油价在50美元以上时，大部分页岩油商都有增产动力，只有油价跌至30美元以下时，这部分动力就会消失甚至减产。所以对应前文，为何我认为油价最悲观的预期会跌至25美元/桶，就是基于此。（通过一些技术手段统计原油历史数据分析可知，通常这种原油价格因重大事件或各国斗抢份额所导致大跌，往往跌幅都是跌剩3分1的） 二、策略 1、做空原油期货 在没有其它衍生工具选择的情况下，期货是最简单直接的。设定止损，做空原油期货。由于波动很大，所以即使您做","text":"前言 最近一个月说股指比较多，其它商品的篇幅少了，那么最近就跟大家详细讲讲原油。因为与月底有我在老虎社区的直播课，到时候再跟大家详细讲讲股指方面的内容了。 一、原油分析 “原油从65美元开始算，运气好的话，跌三分一到45美元；运气不好的话，跌剩三分之一到25美元”。 这是我从去年到现在，无论是线下课，财经专访，写《2020前瞻 暴跌的原油》帖时一直反复强调的一句话。这句话是有根据的，不过在此之前先探讨一下这周的最重磅事件–减产联盟崩塌。 自2016-17年开始，沙特就联手俄罗斯一起减产，担起了支撑油价的责任。但是持续的减产也只是勉强将油价支撑在50美元附近，持续加码的减产迟早会触动某些成员国的核心利益，进而造成联盟松动，那么为什么俄罗斯就不肯加深减产呢？众说纷纭，我也不好猜测，只能罗列一种可能性，就是俄罗斯的市场份额可能在下降。 我们要知道当前世界最大的产油国不是沙特和俄罗斯，而是美国。当OPEC和俄罗斯不断减产支撑油价的时候，美国还在不断增产。如图： 根据CME和EIA的数据，可以看出美国页岩油的产量在2020年1月时仍在节节攀升。为何美国原油仍大幅增产？原因只有一个成本低。 上图是美国页岩油维持生产的成本价，当油价在50美元以上时，大部分页岩油商都有增产动力，只有油价跌至30美元以下时，这部分动力就会消失甚至减产。所以对应前文，为何我认为油价最悲观的预期会跌至25美元/桶，就是基于此。（通过一些技术手段统计原油历史数据分析可知，通常这种原油价格因重大事件或各国斗抢份额所导致大跌，往往跌幅都是跌剩3分1的） 二、策略 1、做空原油期货 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