junge的个人主页 - 老虎社区

junge

junge

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2021-09-07

老虎的打新收益统计在哪里啊？有这个功能吗？@TONY老师 @小虎老师 @小虎百科

2021-01-07

阿里被内外夹击

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-10-23

港股期权可以交易了吗？看到$腾讯控股(00700)$腾讯也有期权了，怎么买卖按钮都是灰的呢。长期持有正股，我想卖covered call提高收益啊

2020-10-14

大涨两天，管理层又开始降温灭火了？

牛市要来，注意吃相

2020-09-14

$腾讯控股(00700)$涡轮认购到期，一个礼拜了，结算资金在哪里看啊

2020-08-24

$腾讯国君零九购A.C(22428)$涡轮认购证到期是现金结算吧，不像美股期权需要准备现金接股票，对吧？

2020-08-24

港股涡轮认购证到期，价内的是现金结算吧，不需要自己做什么吧

2020-08-21

$特斯拉(TSLA)$为什么特斯拉大涨，然而这个深度虚值的看跌期权也大涨了？波动率上升很多，这个。怎么解释呢

2020-07-30

一共30家?还有哪些？

柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么

2020-07-08

$蓝城兄弟(BLCT)$兄弟们真是好样的

2020-04-17

$标普500ETF(SPY)$标普500指数spy怎么显示的，老虎怎么只有这个ETF？烦恼了好久

2020-03-13

$通用汽车(GM)$ 市净率0.79，怎么这么低，这是相当于股票净资产8折甩卖吗？

2019-07-22

$N澜起(688008)$ 开盘第一秒就卖了，不看好哈哈

2019-06-26

$贵州茅台(600519)$ 晒一下半年成绩单 5月份市场大跌，还能赚钱，主要是每天做t

2019-02-01

$贵州茅台(600519)$春节前最后一个交易日的神做T

2018-01-25

买call，到期价内，也会自动行权？

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$自动行权过了一个礼拜才发现，手上多了一手阿里的正股。不是到期都不用管吗？老虎也没啥提示，看交易交路还是在pc端的TW才看到的有虎友发生过同样的事情吗

买call，到期价内，也会自动行权？

2018-01-25

#腾讯发财报看多or看空# $腾讯控股(00700)$ 晒一个波段操作，底仓有10手一直没动，手痒就加仓做波段哈

2018-01-23

#阿里发财报看多or看空# #阿里巴巴# $腾讯控股(00700)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 大家帮我看看这个为什么实现盈亏是0呢？我的阿里持仓多了一手，跟这个put订单有关系么，晕死啊

2018-01-23

#阿里发财报看多or看空# #阿里巴巴#什么时候手里多了一手阿里巴巴，今天才发现OMG，这是什么情况，卖put自动接的吗？可是交易记录好像也没有啊。很久都没卖put了呢。。。我晕啊，今天仔细看才发现，太晕菜了 $腾讯控股(00700)$

2018-01-11

$腾讯控股(00700)$什么时候发财报？哪里可以查

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>腾讯也有期权了，怎么买卖按钮都是灰的呢。长期持有正股，我想卖covered call提高收益啊","listText":"港股期权可以交易了吗？看到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>腾讯也有期权了，怎么买卖按钮都是灰的呢。长期持有正股，我想卖covered call提高收益啊","text":"港股期权可以交易了吗？看到$腾讯控股(00700)$腾讯也有期权了，怎么买卖按钮都是灰的呢。长期持有正股，我想卖covered call提高收益啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e2430e91ddd4760401c6365f3167112","width":"720","height":"1520"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/301895509","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"20727972514030","authorId":"20727972514030","name":"Tony特别帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f671464b0bc8103579e8d0e2197c48","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"用综合账户可以交易","text":"用综合账户可以交易","html":"用综合账户可以交易"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":309881358,"gmtCreate":1602641294774,"gmtModify":1703827252318,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大涨两天，管理层又开始降温灭火了？","listText":"大涨两天，管理层又开始降温灭火了？","text":"大涨两天，管理层又开始降温灭火了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309881358","repostId":"1139235771","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139235771","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1602638050,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139235771?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-14 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>牛市要来，注意吃相</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n牛市要来，注意吃相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-10-14 09:14</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>先吃一个瓜。</p>\n<p>9月20日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600109\">国金证券</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601456\">国联证券</a>筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。</p>\n<p>“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JRJC\">金融界</a>一篇沸腾！</p>\n<p>事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3782f205259ef1889e844e99f9cbaba\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"713\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/548eaf060771d61816d8915a1ab480f6\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"711\"></p>\n<p>然而等来的是……</p>\n<p>昨晚，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01456\">国联证券</a>与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。</p>\n<p>对此猜测纷纭。</p>\n<p>有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。</p>\n<p>究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。</p>\n<p><b>这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……</b><b>凶残的一面也许就要来了。</b></p>\n<p><b>1、翻多</b></p>\n<p>黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！</p>\n<p>黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/084231aa485f8405a6aff5bc0983c2da\" tg-width=\"995\" tg-height=\"567\"></p>\n<p>创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8affb3de92091f7eb8981cf38051370f\" tg-width=\"994\" tg-height=\"569\"></p>\n<p>分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。</p>\n<p><b>2、</b><b>大涨原因</b></p>\n<p>大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。</p>\n<p><b>首先</b>是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。</p>\n<p><b>其次</b>是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/360f008f35136392bfd915c81ae147b1\" tg-width=\"998\" tg-height=\"648\"></p>\n<p><b>第三，</b>可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。</p>\n<p>有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。</p>\n<p>最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！</p>\n<p>所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。</p>\n<p><b>3、</b><b>复刻七月行情？</b></p>\n<p>但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。</p>\n<p>一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。</p>\n<p>是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。</p>\n<p>当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……</p>\n<p>但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……</p>\n<p>这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。</p>\n<p>过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。</p>\n<p>还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……</p>\n<p>也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。</p>\n<p><b>4、</b><b>后市怎么看</b></p>\n<p>先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。</p>\n<p><b>短期看多，</b>指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。</p>\n<p><b>中期看淡，</b>指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。</p>\n<p>其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。</p>\n<p>此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。</p>\n<p>从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。</p>\n<p>2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。</p>\n<p>这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。</p>\n<p>这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。</p>\n<p>按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。<b>这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。</b></p>\n<p><b>5、</b><b>结论</b></p>\n<p>扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：</p>\n<p><b>只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。</b></p>\n<p>“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。</p>\n<p>所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。<b>恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139235771","content_text":"先吃一个瓜。\n9月20日，国金证券与国联证券筹划重大重组的消息传出，两只股票停牌。\n“金莲”（金联）证券要来了！金融界一篇沸腾！\n事实上早在前一个周五（9月18日），国金和国联两只股票早已携手涨停。原因是尾盘阶段消息已经走漏，资金纷纷抢筹把股价拉上了涨停。\n\n然而等来的是……\n昨晚，国联证券与国金证券发布公告，称终止筹划重大重组，明日复牌。当然复牌之后并没有双双跌停，国联跌了5.9%，国金证券收涨2.8%，盘中一度还冲击涨停。\n对此猜测纷纭。\n有人说是监管层要给突然火爆的行情降降温，但我看更像是一次演砸了的乌龙事件。值得一提的是，从7月份行情突然火爆以来，关于金融机构合并的传闻一直在炒，但到目前为止，没有一个成真的。\n究其根源，今年以来金融板块实在是太惨了，估值低到残，也只能炒并购重组做做股价了。对于这种传闻，我向来的态度都是：不要当真。一当真你就输了。\n这两只证券股从合并传闻到最后终止的过程，似乎开了个善意的玩笑（毕竟没跌太狠），但似乎也预示着，这波行情后面还有多少个大雷等着股民。现在天天烈火烹油、收复跌幅、群里收个红包、账户价值创新高……凶残的一面也许就要来了。\n1、翻多\n黄金周过后，A股行情迅速升温。以9月30日收盘价计算，到今日收盘，上证综指累计涨幅已经为4.4%，沪深300为5.49%，创业板指涨幅更是高达8.15%！\n黄金周之前，股市一片惨淡，从7月中旬到9月底，两个半月凄凄惨惨戚戚。沪深300还勉强算是在高位震荡，\n\n创业板指则是一浪低过一浪，一副区间下行的熊样儿。\n\n分析师则是，节前一副忧心忡忡的样子。“谨慎看多”、“震荡为主”、“年内难有大行情”，说的跟真的似的。然而，黄金周一过，立马两样了。过去说三根阳线改变信仰，现在来看，改变信仰，一根阳线就够了。\n2、大涨原因\n大涨还是有原因的。在我看来有三点。\n首先是川普确诊新冠肺炎利空出尽，叠加拜登民调持续走高，外部风险因素有望缓和。\n其次是黄金周期间外盘与港股持续大涨，情绪面得到修复。据统计，港股恒生指数在黄金周期间累计涨幅为5%，恒生科技指数累计涨幅9.33%，超过A股创业板指！\n\n第三，可能与“国七条”（《关于进一步提高上市公司质量的意见》）的发布有关。\n有分析把此次的这个“国七条”与2004年的“国九条”以及2014年的“新国九条”相比。那两次之后都爆发了烈火烹油般的大行情，但随后高空坠落更加恐怖。2006年的牛市之后，上证从6214点跌到1664点；2015年的牛市之后，上证从5187跌到2638。\n最近看到一份统计数据，2015年的大行情，85%的人是亏钱的，总共亏损2500亿！而赚钱的只有不到0.5%，其中包括一些机构、以及特别牛逼的散户和个人。来得快、去得更快的“疯牛”，是不折不扣的财富绞肉机！\n所以，这次如果再搞出2006或2015的那种大牛市，我只能说，呵呵了。\n3、复刻七月行情？\n但人心思涨，是很难克服的人性现象。\n一片悲观的情绪中，某个原因，或者不知道是什么原因，突然引爆行情，持续大涨，成交量放大——这种现象在A股并不少见。\n是的，刚刚过去的7月初就上演过一次。\n当时也是经历了一个节假日，行情突然被引爆，配合几乎所有分析员、媒体、自媒体、雪球大V疯狂唱多。开户量激增，券商App宕机，散户韭菜跑步进场……\n但几天之后人们就发现，螳螂捕蝉，黄雀在后。7月16日，超级巨大的IPO登场，抽水机开动，市场一根大阴线干下来，后面剩下的就是震荡，方向全无……\n这次，节假日情绪突然转暖，行情突然火爆，持续大涨，分析员媒体大V集体唱多，这几条因素已经具备。成交量放大、散户跑步进场、以及券商App宕机还没出现。过几天就会出现。\n过了一个假期，如果说有什么改变了，唯一能够改变的就是人们出门旅游，看到许多地方人满为患，表明经济并不是那么差，人们还愿意消费，舍得花钱，所以对经济、乃至对股市的信心增强了。\n还有更重要的，这次也有一个超级巨大的IPO在后面等着……\n也许，这个超级巨大的IPO登场之日，就是这波行情到头之时。话不能说得这么死，但得多加个小心。\n4、后市怎么看\n先说结论：短期看多，中期看淡，长期看多。\n短期看多，指的是那个超级IPO之前，市场一定是大涨的，原理参照7月初。\n中期看淡，指的是3到6个月内，大行情的可能性不大。为什么？首先是疫情。今天青岛又发现本地确诊病例了，从5月份北京新发地疫情被扑灭，中国大陆本土疫情可以说已经完结了。但青岛又出现了，说明这个病毒极其难以彻底根治。此外全球还在一天大几万的蹭蹭蹭增加，中国很难风景这边独好。\n其次是货币与宏观条件。此前为应对疫情各国放了太多的水，目前货币宏观收紧已经是各国的共识，中国是这一轮最早退出货币宽松的国家。货币收紧的前提下，出现普涨大行情的概率很低。\n此外对于外资流入。前期人民币快速升值，外资流入较快。现在央行下调外汇风险准备金率，对于抑制做多人民币的投机有一定作用。虽然很难说人民币从此进入下行通道，但最起码外资流入的势头会收紧。这也不利于形成股市大行情。\n从周期的角度，目前的宏观、货币、进出口、房地产、金融市场的处境与2010年4月出台“国十条”前后比较接近。当时2008年全球金融危机之后各国放水，带来了一波明显的通胀与资产价格重建；2018年类似的情况发生，随后各国货币宽松，直到疫情期间，放水达到高潮。\n2008-2010，以及2018-2020，这两轮宽松周期类似，都是朱格拉周期中的第一个库存周期。现在是第一库存周期结束前的状态。而进入第二库存周期的触发因素，必须要有新的资本开支目标，说白了，要有至少一个“风口行业”。就上一轮第二库存周期而言，当时的风口就是“大众创业万众创新”、共享经济、小额信贷、以及P2P，当然棚改也算一个。\n这一轮有望启动第二库存周期的技术因素，包括数字货币、物联网、区块链、云计算、新能源、自动驾驶、芯片技术、生物医药等。因此，下一阶段的关注点，应该放到这些“新概念”上面。\n这些“新概念”里面，必定会跑出一大批公司，也会有更大一批公司在残酷的竞争中消亡。到那些跑出的公司开始兑现盈利，形成所谓的一批新的白马股，此时，周期时钟就会敲响第三库存周期。至此，一轮朱格拉资本开支周期走完，酝酿下一场金融危机，时间也许是2030年前后。那时是最后一次检验周金涛预言的时刻。\n按照康波周期的理论，2020-2030这十年，是中国为主导的全球资本开支与技术扩张周期。这期间中国将复刻美国1987到1999的牛市。这是我们长期看多中国股市的原因。\n5、结论\n扯远了，还是重复我之前的观点：\n只有大多数人不相信是牛市，才是慢牛行情。\n“在一次疯狂行情中跑步进场，闭着眼买，不久后被套，然后骂一辈子中国股市。”——这是我跟一个朋友聊天中，提及中国散户亏钱的永恒模式。\n所以，在这波大行情马上来临之际，我还是衷心希望慢一点，别太着急了。不然超级IPO那天，再复刻7月16那天的行情，今年也基本上就交待了。恕我心直口快，如果让大多数股民永远重复这种被收割的模式，在一片怨毒之中，A股多少年也走不出慢牛行情。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972044286,"gmtCreate":1600051600245,"gmtModify":1703820127064,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>涡轮认购到期，一个礼拜了，结算资金在哪里看啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a>涡轮认购到期，一个礼拜了，结算资金在哪里看啊","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$涡轮认购到期，一个礼拜了，结算资金在哪里看啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972044286","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979647804,"gmtCreate":1598248666708,"gmtModify":1704218035515,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/22428\">$腾讯国君零九购A.C(22428)$</a>涡轮认购证到期是现金结算吧，不像美股期权需要准备现金接股票，对吧？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/22428\">$腾讯国君零九购A.C(22428)$</a>涡轮认购证到期是现金结算吧，不像美股期权需要准备现金接股票，对吧？","text":"$腾讯国君零九购A.C(22428)$涡轮认购证到期是现金结算吧，不像美股期权需要准备现金接股票，对吧？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6efcede22eb4ba9f6539a58da5619c52","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979647804","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979647149,"gmtCreate":1598248597281,"gmtModify":1704218035170,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"港股涡轮认购证到期，价内的是现金结算吧，不需要自己做什么吧","listText":"港股涡轮认购证到期，价内的是现金结算吧，不需要自己做什么吧","text":"港股涡轮认购证到期，价内的是现金结算吧，不需要自己做什么吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979647149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979997620,"gmtCreate":1597952636660,"gmtModify":1704217421236,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>为什么特斯拉大涨，然而这个深度虚值的看跌期权也大涨了？波动率上升很多，这个。怎么解释呢","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>为什么特斯拉大涨，然而这个深度虚值的看跌期权也大涨了？波动率上升很多，这个。怎么解释呢","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$为什么特斯拉大涨，然而这个深度虚值的看跌期权也大涨了？波动率上升很多，这个。怎么解释呢","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17b8fc523a6c1379c58e170a4ba5d5d","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979997620","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4099,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3502325023815524","authorId":"3502325023815524","name":"鬼风_蓝胖子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8813cbbc226d9f519cb1a04e35f36225","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"你自己都说了，波动率大涨","text":"你自己都说了，波动率大涨","html":"你自己都说了，波动率大涨"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":942309730,"gmtCreate":1596065436420,"gmtModify":1704210833250,"author":{"id":"93354331162830","authorId":"93354331162830","name":"junge","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7a3145296e2706f3e947c621644861a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一共30家?还有哪些？","listText":"一共30家?还有哪些？","text":"一共30家?还有哪些？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/942309730","repostId":"2055437028","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2055437028","pubTimestamp":1596015689,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2055437028?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-29 17:41","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2055437028","media":"红星新闻","summary":"7月28日，美股盘初，柯达（KODK）股价一度暴涨350%，截至今日凌晨收盘，柯达涨20...","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>　　<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KODK\">柯达</a>转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么</strong></p>\n<p>　　7月28日，美股盘初，柯达(KODK)股价一度暴涨350%，截至今日凌晨收盘，柯达涨205.73%，报8.01美元/股，最新总市值为3.50亿美元。</p>\n<p>　　柯达股价暴涨的原因是公司进军制药行业，它获得了美国政府7.65亿美元的国家贷款以创建柯达制药公司。</p>\n<p>　　红星新闻记者发现，这家曾经破产的百年品牌，经过重组成为一家小型数位影像公司。除了为人熟知的影像类产品，柯达还跨界生产影音和数据存储产品，比如存储卡、无线耳机等，还曾宣布生产手机，展示过平板电脑、无人机等，但其中大部分产品都是品牌授权给其他企业生产。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>柯达获得7.65亿贷款</strong></p>\n<p>　　<strong>转行后医药业务将占40%</strong></p>\n<p>　　据悉，柯达制药公司将生产 “已长期陷入国家性短缺的原料”，一旦该部门全面启动并运行，公司将能生产“高达25%的用于非生物、非抗菌、非专利药品的活性药物原料”，其中就包括美国总统特朗普曾表示能用于治疗冠状病毒，但已被美国食品和药物管理局认定为“治疗新冠效果不佳且副作用较大”的抗疟疾药物――羟氯喹。</p>\n<p>　　柯达首席执行长Jim Continenza表示，柯达的贷款条款与商业贷款类似，必须在25年内偿还。公司将把重点转移到制药原料生产，预计该业务将占到公司整体业务的30%至40%。</p>\n<p>　　这笔贷款来自美国国际发展金融公司(U.S.International Development Finance Corporation)，这是一个类似于银行的政府机构。这是依美国《国防生产法案》(Defense Production Act)发放的第一笔此类贷款。美国政府此前曾援引该法案来加快COVID-19新冠等相关用品的生产。特朗普5月发布命令，允许DFC为控制新冠蔓延提供资金支持，并加强任何相关的国内药物生产供应链。美国提供此项贷款的目标是减少对印度等国家药物进口依赖。</p>\n<p>　　美东时间周二晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场新闻发布会上表示：“我们对《国防生产法》的使用将动员柯达制造仿制药的活性药物成分。”</p>\n<p>　　美国国内的药品生产在上世纪70年代开始从美国转移出去，主要原因是为了节约成本。白宫贸易顾问彼得・纳瓦罗表示，他越来越担心美国在药品生产的关键材料上对外国的依赖。美国目前正在考虑为大约30家公司提供资金，以抗击新冠病毒，保护公众健康。</p>\n<p>　　柯达此前曾短暂涉足医药行业。1988年，柯达以近51亿美元的价格收购了制药商Sterling Drug，1994年将其分割出售。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>曾经破产的胶卷大王</strong></p>\n<p>　　<strong>毁灭于自己的技术之手</strong></p>\n<p>　　柯达曾是全球摄影领域的领头羊，这家诞生于1892年的公司最鼎盛时期有14.5万名员工，1997年2月市值最高达到310亿美元。</p>\n<p>　　如今这个百年品牌不仅转行生产仿制药原料，市值也只剩下3.47亿美元，只有巅峰时期的百分之一。</p>\n<p>　　1975年，柯达发明了世界上第一台数码相机。然而它在柯达内部并没有受到重视。柯达高管们认为数码相机会削弱他们的胶卷业务，认为推出数码相机会迫使公司卷入自己与自己的竞争当中。</p>\n<p>　　《福布斯》杂志曾经指出，柯达员工的薪水与胶片、化学品以及相纸等耗材的销量息息相关。他们认为，卖不出去耗材，他们就没有利润。</p>\n<p>　　诞生于柯达的数码相机最终毁灭了柯达。</p>\n<p>　　从20世纪90年代后期开始，数码相机越来越多，柯达开始艰难生存。自2004年以来，柯达几乎每年都在亏损。柯达已经无法盈利。2007年，柯达先后出售了数码相机业务和医疗成像业务。</p>\n<p>　　2008年，iPhone诞生，手机摄影的普及使得胶片数量直线下降。2012年1月柯达正式申请破产保护。</p>\n<p>　　<strong>复活后在干什么？</strong></p>\n<p>　　<strong>大量产品都品牌授权</strong></p>\n<p>　　2013年，柯达脱离破产保护，重组为一家小型数位影像公司，开始跨界转型。2016年，柯达推出了自己的手机。2017年，柯达开始做杂志。柯达还与多家时尚品牌合作推出了联名产品。</p>\n<p>　　根据公开信息，柯达目前的业务主要集中在影像、影音和数据存储产品。</p>\n<p>　　红星新闻记者在电商平台上搜索“柯达”发现，柯达目前的产品主要包括胶卷、数码相机、数码相框、电子相册、照片打印机、扫描仪、相纸、电池、冲印服务等摄影类；存储卡、连接线、U盘等数据存储类；无线耳机、蓝牙音箱、无线同屏器等影音类；非摄影类产品只有眼镜及镜片。记者没有找到柯达手机。</p>\n<p>　　值得一提的是，许多挂着“柯达”商标的产品都是获得了柯达公司品牌授权的其他公司生产的。</p>\n<p>　　柯达官网显示，品牌授权许可产品包括电池、充电器、手电筒、相机配件、眼镜镜片、喷墨纸、墨水和专用介质、喷墨打印机、即时打印相机以及手机。就连数码相机也是授权其他公司生产。</p>\n<p>　　甚至在国际消费电子展(CES 2018)上，柯达展示的手机、平板电脑、无人机和微型投影仪，也均为授权其他公司生产。</p>\n<p>　　手机和平板电脑是Bullitt Group获得柯达品牌授权后推出的产品；无人机是授权给 Thrust UAV 公司品牌后推出的产品；微型投影仪是授权C+A Global公司生产的产品。</p>\n<p>　　红星新闻记者 袁野 吴丹若</p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"zxjw_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-29 17:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/07-29/336892.shtml><strong>红星新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么\n　　7月28日，美股盘初，柯达(KODK)股价一度暴涨350%，截至今日凌晨收盘，柯达涨205.73%，报8.01美元/股，最新总市值为3.50亿美元。\n　　柯达股价暴涨的原因是公司进军制药行业，它获得了美国政府7.65亿美元的国家贷款以创建柯达制药公司。\n　　红星新闻记者发现，这家曾经破产的百年品牌，经过重组成为一家小型数位影像公司。除了为人熟知...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/07-29/336892.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/07-29/U789P902T1D336892F104DT20200729174129.jpeg","relate_stocks":{"KODK":"柯达"},"source_url":"http://www.jwview.com/jingwei/html/07-29/336892.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2055437028","content_text":"柯达转行卖药，曾经破产的胶卷大王，重生后在干什么\n　　7月28日，美股盘初，柯达(KODK)股价一度暴涨350%，截至今日凌晨收盘，柯达涨205.73%，报8.01美元/股，最新总市值为3.50亿美元。\n　　柯达股价暴涨的原因是公司进军制药行业，它获得了美国政府7.65亿美元的国家贷款以创建柯达制药公司。\n　　红星新闻记者发现，这家曾经破产的百年品牌，经过重组成为一家小型数位影像公司。除了为人熟知的影像类产品，柯达还跨界生产影音和数据存储产品，比如存储卡、无线耳机等，还曾宣布生产手机，展示过平板电脑、无人机等，但其中大部分产品都是品牌授权给其他企业生产。\n　　柯达获得7.65亿贷款\n　　转行后医药业务将占40%\n　　据悉，柯达制药公司将生产 “已长期陷入国家性短缺的原料”，一旦该部门全面启动并运行，公司将能生产“高达25%的用于非生物、非抗菌、非专利药品的活性药物原料”，其中就包括美国总统特朗普曾表示能用于治疗冠状病毒，但已被美国食品和药物管理局认定为“治疗新冠效果不佳且副作用较大”的抗疟疾药物――羟氯喹。\n　　柯达首席执行长Jim Continenza表示，柯达的贷款条款与商业贷款类似，必须在25年内偿还。公司将把重点转移到制药原料生产，预计该业务将占到公司整体业务的30%至40%。\n　　这笔贷款来自美国国际发展金融公司(U.S.International Development Finance Corporation)，这是一个类似于银行的政府机构。这是依美国《国防生产法案》(Defense Production Act)发放的第一笔此类贷款。美国政府此前曾援引该法案来加快COVID-19新冠等相关用品的生产。特朗普5月发布命令，允许DFC为控制新冠蔓延提供资金支持，并加强任何相关的国内药物生产供应链。美国提供此项贷款的目标是减少对印度等国家药物进口依赖。\n　　美东时间周二晚间，美国总统特朗普在一场新闻发布会上表示：“我们对《国防生产法》的使用将动员柯达制造仿制药的活性药物成分。”\n　　美国国内的药品生产在上世纪70年代开始从美国转移出去，主要原因是为了节约成本。白宫贸易顾问彼得・纳瓦罗表示，他越来越担心美国在药品生产的关键材料上对外国的依赖。美国目前正在考虑为大约30家公司提供资金，以抗击新冠病毒，保护公众健康。\n　　柯达此前曾短暂涉足医药行业。1988年，柯达以近51亿美元的价格收购了制药商Sterling Drug，1994年将其分割出售。\n　　曾经破产的胶卷大王\n　　毁灭于自己的技术之手\n　　柯达曾是全球摄影领域的领头羊，这家诞生于1892年的公司最鼎盛时期有14.5万名员工，1997年2月市值最高达到310亿美元。\n　　如今这个百年品牌不仅转行生产仿制药原料，市值也只剩下3.47亿美元，只有巅峰时期的百分之一。\n　　1975年，柯达发明了世界上第一台数码相机。然而它在柯达内部并没有受到重视。柯达高管们认为数码相机会削弱他们的胶卷业务，认为推出数码相机会迫使公司卷入自己与自己的竞争当中。\n　　《福布斯》杂志曾经指出，柯达员工的薪水与胶片、化学品以及相纸等耗材的销量息息相关。他们认为，卖不出去耗材，他们就没有利润。\n　　诞生于柯达的数码相机最终毁灭了柯达。\n　　从20世纪90年代后期开始，数码相机越来越多，柯达开始艰难生存。自2004年以来，柯达几乎每年都在亏损。柯达已经无法盈利。2007年，柯达先后出售了数码相机业务和医疗成像业务。\n　　2008年，iPhone诞生，手机摄影的普及使得胶片数量直线下降。2012年1月柯达正式申请破产保护。\n　　复活后在干什么？\n　　大量产品都品牌授权\n　　2013年，柯达脱离破产保护，重组为一家小型数位影像公司，开始跨界转型。2016年，柯达推出了自己的手机。2017年，柯达开始做杂志。柯达还与多家时尚品牌合作推出了联名产品。\n　　根据公开信息，柯达目前的业务主要集中在影像、影音和数据存储产品。\n　　红星新闻记者在电商平台上搜索“柯达”发现，柯达目前的产品主要包括胶卷、数码相机、数码相框、电子相册、照片打印机、扫描仪、相纸、电池、冲印服务等摄影类；存储卡、连接线、U盘等数据存储类；无线耳机、蓝牙音箱、无线同屏器等影音类；非摄影类产品只有眼镜及镜片。记者没有找到柯达手机。\n　　值得一提的是，许多挂着“柯达”商标的产品都是获得了柯达公司品牌授权的其他公司生产的。\n　　柯达官网显示，品牌授权许可产品包括电池、充电器、手电筒、相机配件、眼镜镜片、喷墨纸、墨水和专用介质、喷墨打印机、即时打印相机以及手机。就连数码相机也是授权其他公司生产。\n　　甚至在国际消费电子展(CES 2018)上，柯达展示的手机、平板电脑、无人机和微型投影仪，也均为授权其他公司生产。\n　　手机和平板电脑是Bullitt 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