Beyond Meat: No Pricing Power, Therefore No Competitive Advantage_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

Beyond Meat: No Pricing Power, Therefore No Competitive Advantage

seekingalpha2023-05-02

Joe Raedle Thesis Negative gross margins and negative sales growth are two things that many authors have written about in the past, but I think not many have gone to the root cause. Despite high brand...

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JC6333
·2023-05-06
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Despite high brand awareness, Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND) is still struggling to achieve positive business metrics. So I would argue that the problems stem from a lack of competitive advantage and mismanagement. I will discuss this in more detail in the next few chapters. Analysis As I mentioned in the thesis chapter, the negative gross margins and the negative revenue growth are terrible and the negative FCF of around $390m is therefore likely to lead to new capital being raised. With only $309.9m in cash and ST investments, new capital will be probably be needed and this could be in the form of new shares being issued or via debt from banks. But will they get a new loan from a bank with such poor financials? Banks are not VC or PE investors, they only care about getting their money back plus their interest, but Beyond Meat could be a company where this could be difficult. So I think bank loans are pretty unlikely and fundraising rounds are more likely. I think the most likely scenario is that a larger competitor will probably acquire Beyond Meat. I mean, they have really good brand awareness with 70% in the US and 39% of people who use meat substitutes use them. But it looks like they won't be able to capitalize on that at the moment, because they don't have pricing power, as we saw in 2022. They could not raise prices and still get people to buy their products. A company with a competitive advantage would have been able to pass on the higher prices caused by inflation. Since people who are already vegetarians would probably like Beyond Meat anyway, their target audience is meat eaters, whom they try to convince that their products taste like real meat and are better for the environment. And because food is a matter of taste, some people like it and some people don't. I myself find a Beyond Burger quite okay. Also, the plan to establish Beyond Meat by showing that their meat is used as an ingredient probably helped them achieve the 70% brand awareness, which was quite a nice strategy. After all, you don't normally see the name of the company whose meat/meat alternative is used on a restaurant menu. And that leads to Beyond Meat's greatest asset at the moment, its brand equity. But they were unable to capitalize on this as inventories rose and sales fell, coupled with supply chain problems. So there are two possibilities: either the product is not good enough to convince consumers to buy it a second time, or they only have brand awareness because people have seen the name but never tried their product. And I would say the latter is the cause, because I think the product is fine. The plant-based meat market is also expected to grow from $11 billion in 2022 to $33 billion in 2027. This is a huge opportunity for companies in the sector. Glassdoor.com The management ratings on Glassdoor are not very good and indicate that there is room for improvement. Glassdoor.com Criticisms often include a lack of focus and management, as you can see in the picture above. But we have to remember that people who have a bad experience are more likely to write a review than someone who has a good experience. But the reviews could act as a helpful guide. Glassdoor But compared to one of their main competitors, Impossible Foods, they still have the better overall ratings and the criticisms are almost the same. So from this point of view I would not favor Impossible as the better competitor, as is often the case in comparisons. Beyond Meat has better brand awareness and market share and the management seems to be at least on a par. Also, there is not much information available about Impossible as it is a private company. But I think the biggest competitor in this space and probably the best company is Morningstar Farms, which is a division of Kellogg's (K). There were some plans to spin it off in 2022, but earlier this year they decided to keep the company in their portfolio. Part of the reason for this decision was that the multiples for Beyond Meat had come down quite sharply and the environment for a spin-off had changed. However, during this process it became clear that Morningstar was already profitable compared to Beyond Meat. Future I think the most likely scenario is that Beyond Meat will be acquired and I think Tyson Foods (TSN) is the most obvious candidate. Through their Tyson Foods venture capital fund, they participated in the recent fundraising, so I think it is highly likely that they will increase their stake in the next likely fundraising rounds. And I think it would be a good move because they can help them with their supply chain issues and there are probably synergies with Raised & Rooted. But whether this will benefit shareholders in the short term is another question, as I do not think it will lead to quick shareholder gains. It is more of a long-term story. The often quoted positive FCF in H2 2023 is, in my opinion, a very challenging target that I do not think they will achieve. Or I think it will be achieved through the massive use of adjustments that companies often make these days. But a positive FCF, if achieved, would have a real impact on the company's prospects. At the moment, I would argue that there is still room for the share price to fall to a range of $5-$7, which is where I would place the company if we take into account the brand equity. However, a positive FCF would justify the current share price and even give it some upside, as the market has plenty of room to grow and Beyond Meat has a brand name that many people recognize. I mean even here on Seeking Alpha it has 80k followers which is quite a lot and shows that a lot of people are interested in this company. Conclusion Beyond Meat is far from a value investment, and I would argue that the possibility of achieving fantastic returns over a 10-year period is quite low. And at the moment there is not much of a safety net, and even at this point the share price could fall another 50%. However, there is a small chance that this will be a better company in 5 years' time.  But buying shares at this time would be more of a gamble than an investment, as there are so many variables that could affect the business in the near future alone, and it is almost impossible to predict a safe path for the future. Also, the financial situation for Beyond Meat is quite dangerous at the moment and the only real value at this point is the brand and what another company would pay for it.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":656972930,"gmtCreate":1683316934521,"gmtModify":1683316936078,"author":{"id":"3499668592771630","authorId":"3499668592771630","name":"JC6333","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/695a42743b611580d7e187d260dd409b","vip":1,"crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"产品不够好","listText":"产品不够好","text":"产品不够好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656972930","repostId":2332988902,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"hasMoreComments":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}