特斯拉与新势力销量跟踪报告：4月新势力终端持续加码特斯拉FSD入华释放积极信号_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

特斯拉与新势力销量跟踪报告：4月新势力终端持续加码特斯拉FSD入华释放积极信号

光大证券股份有...05-04

理想同比微增/环比回落，蔚来同环比大增：1）4 月理想交付量同比+0.4%/环比-11.0%至25,787 辆；2）4 月蔚来交付量同比+134.6%/环比+31.6%至15,620辆；3）4 月小鹏交付量同比+32.7%/环比+4.1%至9,393 辆。我们认为，1）理想4 月销量环比下降主要由于老车型竞争加剧、新车型Mega 不及预期/L6 上市仍待爬坡；2）蔚来同环比改善主要受益于销售终端...

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to release a positive signal","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1},"content_text":"理想同比微增/环比回落，蔚来同环比大增：1）4 月理想交付量同比+0.4%/环比-11.0%至25,787 辆；2）4 月蔚来交付量同比+134.6%/环比+31.6%至15,620辆；3）4 月小鹏交付量同比+32.7%/环比+4.1%至9,393 辆。我们认为，1）理想4 月销量环比下降主要由于老车型竞争加剧、新车型Mega 不及预期/L6 上市仍待爬坡；2）蔚来同环比改善主要受益于销售终端持续发力（蔚来推出最高10亿元油车置换补贴+销售能力持续提升）；3）小鹏交付量维稳主要受益于限时降价+置换补贴。新车型上市+价格调整提振需求：特斯拉：4/21 特斯拉在国内全系降价1.4 万元。截至5/1，国产Model Y 交付周期维持2-6 周、Model 3 后驱版/长续航版交付周期延长至3-6 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为2-6 周）；4/24 Model 3 高性能版重新上市（售价33.59 万元），动力性能提升+外观设计微调，将于3Q24E 开启交付。新势力：1）理想：4/18 理想L6 正式上市，交付周期为5-8 周；截至5/1，L7/L8/L9/MEGA 交付周期维持2-4 周。预计随L6 开启批量交付（上市12 天累计大定破2 万辆）+全新价格体系促定（4/22 L7/L8/L9/MEGA 降价1.8-3 万元），5 月理想单月销量有望回稳改善。2）蔚来：4/25 蔚来发布ET7 2024 行政版（售价42.8-51.6 万元），交付周期为2-6 周；截至5/1，ES6/EC6/ES8/ET5T/EC7交付周期维持2-3 周、ET5 交付周期缩短至2-3 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为4-5 周）、ES7 交付周期缩短至3-5 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为6-7 周）。我们认为，2024 款车型矩阵+终端优惠加码有望维稳蔚来短期销量，长期销量增长关键仍在于乐道品牌后续布局。3）小鹏：截至5/1，G9 交付周期延长至1-6 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为1-4 周）、G6 交付周期延长至1-6 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为1-4 周）、P7i交付周期缩短至1-5 周（vs. 4 月交付周期为1-8 周）、X9 交付周期维持1-4 周。我们认为，全新品牌Mona 平价智能化市场认可度或为小鹏后续销量增长关键。4）小米+华为：4 月小米交付量首月达7,058 辆，问界交付量同比+929.4%/环比-20.9%至2.5 万辆、智界交付量环比+42.2%至4,546 辆，均表现强劲。FSD 入华释放积极信号，有望驱动国内智驾进一步发展：4/28 马斯克访华，当前特斯拉已通过汽车数据安全4 项全部要求、各地对特斯拉使用限制已陆续取消。我们判断，特斯拉FSD 入华释放积极信号（4/29 特斯拉中国官网FSD 购买界面信息已由“稍后推出”修改为“即将推出”），或带动消费者对智驾认知进一步抬升；2）国内新势力、头部车企或加速跟进，智驾竞争或将进一步加剧。投资建议：看好政策/以旧换新补贴驱动下2024E 销量总量修复前景。整车：推荐比亚迪、赛力斯，建议关注北汽蓝谷。零部件：1）智能化/机器人，推荐拓普集团，建议关注三花智控、贝斯特、北特科技；2）特斯拉产业链，推荐福耀玻璃，建议关注爱柯迪；3）小米/华为产业链，建议关注无锡振华、沪光股份。风险提示：政策波动；供应链不及预期；行业需求不及预期；爬坡不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComments":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false}}