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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-12-21
  Strongly agree
  Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know
  Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.Apple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights thr
  Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know
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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-10-27
  Holding BRK.B, hassle free
  These 10 Stocks Make Up 87% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio
  Diversification isn't a necessity if you know what you're doing, according to Buffett.
  These 10 Stocks Make Up 87% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio
  395 评论
  6
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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-10-14
  SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright
  How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season
  At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys
  How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season
  553 评论
  5
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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-10-04
  IMO Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG) is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission & Tax will eat into profit for short term as well.
  Top Performing ETFs For September 2021
  Energy funds dominate as the cyclical reflation trade returns.
  Top Performing ETFs For September 2021
  531 评论
  3
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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-09-28
  20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through
  Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
  For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb
  Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
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- peng321peng321
  ·2021-08-23
  BRK & SE .... the least also 10% return pa .... long term holding ..[美金] [美金]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  449 1
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Here is what they should know first.Apple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights thr","content":"<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p>\n<p>Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p>\n<p>A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p>\n<p><b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p>\n<p>AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p>\n<p>The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p>\n<p><b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p>\n<p>“Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p>\n<p>We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p>\n<p>Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p>\n<p>But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p>\n<p><b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p>\n<p>All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p>\n<p>The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p>\n<p>Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-21 11:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.\nApple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112391676","content_text":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.\nApple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.\nA few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.\nFigure 1: Apple store in China.\n#1. Valuations are looking more attractive\nAAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.\nFigure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.\nThe last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.\n#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains\n“Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.\nWe have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.\nFigure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.\nCould this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.\nBut in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.\n#3. Don’t underestimate volatility\nAll the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.\nThe emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.\nFigure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.\nBecause Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855916155,"gmtCreate":1635323901479,"gmtModify":1635324029476,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","listText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","text":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855916155","repostId":"2178408679","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2178408679","pubTimestamp":1635248021,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178408679?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 19:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Stocks Make Up 87% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178408679","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Diversification isn't a necessity if you know what you're doing, according to Buffett.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The Oracle of Omaha has created over $600 billion in value for Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders since 1965.</li>\n <li>Despite owning stakes in nearly four dozen companies, just 10 stocks make up 87% of Berkshire's $329.7 billion investment portfolio.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>When it comes to investing success, <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett is in a class of his own. Buffett may not be infallible, but he's helped create more than $600 billion in shareholder value for the company's shareholders since taking the helm in 1965. As a whole, Berkshire Hathaway's shares have averaged an annual gain of 20% over the past 56 years, leading to an aggregate gain of better than 3,300,000%.</p>\n<p>Interestingly, though, the Oracle of Omaha's success isn't the result of diversification. Buffett believes diversification is only a necessity if you don't know what you're doing. As of this past weekend, the cumulative value of the nearly four dozen stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway was $329.7 billion. However, just 10 companies made up $286.1 billion, or 87%, of Warren Buffett's portfolio.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/533403f3176e26f5f4da7e08dd122471\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CEO WARREN BUFFETT. IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.</span></p>\n<h2>1. Apple: $134.9 billion</h2>\n<p>Innovation kingpin <b>Apple</b> (NASDAQ:AAPL) is often referred to by the Oracle of Omaha as Berkshire Hathaway's \"third business.\" With over 907 million shares held and Apple regularly buying back its common stock, Berkshire's stake in the company has grown to 5.5%.</p>\n<p>Buffett's Apple investment is all about the power of branding, innovation, and transformation. Apple is the leading smartphone brand in the U.S., is benefiting immensely from the introduction of 5G wireless capability, and is steadily transforming itself into a platforms' company that'll be focused on subscription services. This shift, led by CEO Tim Cook, will allow Apple to better weather product replacement cycles, and it should have a positive long-term effect on operating margins and customer loyalty.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9921669d6e72984233e143b35e65df21\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>2. Bank of America: $49.1 billion</h2>\n<p>There isn't an industry Warren Buffett loves more than bank stocks. With permission from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in <b>Bank of America</b> (NYSE:BAC) to more than 1 billion shares, or 12.5% of outstanding shares. Normally, a 10% stake or higher would qualify an investor like Berkshire Hathaway as a bank holding company.</p>\n<p>Bank of America is the most interest-sensitive of the money-center banks, which means it's the best-positioned to take advantage of higher lending rates come 2023 (and beyond).</p>\n<p>Also, BofA has done an enviable job of promoting digital banking. With more bank customers than ever transacting online or via mobile app, Bank of America has been able to cut costs by consolidating some of its physical branches.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7f6a702501b8ac4441d5357965f786\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: AMERICAN EXPRESS.</span></p>\n<h2>3. American Express: $28.4 billion</h2>\n<p>A big theme within Buffett's investment portfolio is that he loves financial stocks. Payment processor and lender <b>American Express </b>(NYSE:AXP) is the third longest-tenured company, with Berkshire holding a position since 1993.</p>\n<p>AmEx's success has long been tied to its ability to draw in affluent clientele. The well-to-do are less likely to alter their spending habits when minor economic contractions or recessions arise.</p>\n<p>Further, American Express is what I call a \"double-dipper.\" In addition to processing credit transactions, it also acts as a lender, and is therefore able to collect interest income and fees from cardholders. Since economic expansions last for years, AmEx is a good bet to excel for long periods of time.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64dcdff17a24b8a4e277db734557537\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: COCA-COLA.</span></p>\n<h2>4. Coca-Cola: $21.8 billion</h2>\n<p>Beverage giant <b>Coca-Cola</b> (NYSE:KO) happens to be Buffett's longest-turned holding. Berkshire Hathaway has held shares of Coke on an uninterrupted basis since 1988. With a cost basis on Coke of $3.25, Buffett and his investing team are now netting a 52% annual yield on cost.</p>\n<p>While Coca-Cola isn't the growth story it once was, it's still quite dominant. Its products can be found in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba), and it has more than 20 brands generating $1 billion or more in annual sales.</p>\n<p>Coke also controls 20% of cold beverage market share in developed countries and 10% of cold beverage share in emerging markets. This gives the company highly predictable cash flow in established markets and organic growth potential in emerging regions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56aaf3a83c0f4feecb7dc3e505a5298c\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>5. Kraft Heinz: $11.8 billion</h2>\n<p>Consumer staples stocks no longer comprise a large percentage of Buffett's portfolio like they did two decades ago. However, packaged-foods company <b>Kraft Heinz</b> (NASDAQ:KHC) is no slouch. At $11.8 billion, it's Berkshire Hathaway's fifth-largest holding.</p>\n<p>Although Kraft Heinz is benefiting from the pandemic -- i.e., more consumers are eating at home -- it's arguably been one of Buffett's worst investments. The Oracle of Omaha freely admits that Heinz overpaid for Kraft Foods in 2015. Four years later, it led to a writedown in excess of $15 billion.</p>\n<p>If there is a bright side, it's that Kraft Heinz is paying a hearty 4.4% yield. Nevertheless, with a 26.6% stake in Kraft Heinz, Buffett could reasonably be described as \"stuck\" in this position.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/159f9f94399bca4160083c4b00edfb0e\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>6. Moody's: $9.4 billion</h2>\n<p>Credit ratings agency and analytics company <b>Moody's</b> (NYSE:MCO) is another longtime holding that's grown into a huge position. Moody's has been a holding since it was spun off from <b>Dun &amp; Bradstreet</b>&nbsp;in 2000, with Berkshire sporting an unrealized gain of more than 3,700%, thus far (not including dividends).</p>\n<p>In recent years, historically low lending rates have been a boon for Moody's. The ability for corporations to issue low-interest debt has kept its bond-rating agency busy.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, the complexity of the financial markets and ever-changing tax landscape have helped drive consistent double-digit growth to Moody's Analytics segment.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fba9965f7be6784fbbeabc01181fb3\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: U.S. BANK.</span></p>\n<h2>7. U.S. Bancorp: $9.2 billion</h2>\n<p>Have I mentioned that Warren Buffett likes bank stocks? Although BofA is his clear favorite, Berkshire's position in regional bank <b>U.S. Bancorp</b> (NYSE:USB) is pretty much always just below the 10% threshold that would qualify it as a bank holding company.</p>\n<p>What's really impressive about U.S. Bancorp is its digitization push. In the September-ended quarter, 80% of all transactions were completed digitally, up 13 percentage points from the comparable quarter in 2019.&nbsp; Since online or mobile transactions are significantly cheaper than branch-based transactions, the company has been able to consolidate its branches to improve its operating efficiency.</p>\n<p>U.S. Bancorp also avoided the riskier derivative investments that sacked money-center banks during the financial crisis. By sticking to the bread-and-butter of banking (i.e., loan and deposit growth), it's been able to deliver industry-topping return on assets.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d38c1453d695e1c76cb6d457fd617a96\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>8. BYD Corp.: $8.6 billion</h2>\n<p>Something you might not realize about Buffett is that he invested a little over $231 million in 2008 into China-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer <b>BYD</b> (OTC:BYDDY). Today that investment is worth around $8.6 billion.</p>\n<p>EVs are a no-brainer growth trend globally, but are an especially intriguing investment idea in China, the world's largest auto market. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, half of all auto sales by 2035 in China are expected to be some form of alternative energy.</p>\n<p>In the third quarter, BYD sold approximately 183,000 next-gen vehicles, which includes EVs and hybrids. If looking at just EVs, the company sold close to 92,000, which was nearly triple the year-ago quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58fe938d5ce6d8662de9a7f51aec083f\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>9. Verizon Communications: $8.4 billion</h2>\n<p>The newest big investment from Warren Buffett is telecom stock <b>Verizon</b> (NYSE:VZ). The Oracle of Omaha and his team acquired nearly $9 billion worth of Verizon shares in the first and second quarters of 2021.</p>\n<p>On one hand, there's a good likelihood that Verizon will benefit from the rollout of 5G wireless infrastructure. Though its high-growth days are long gone, Verizon should benefit from increased data consumption as more consumers and businesses upgrade their devices. Since data is the company's key margin driver, the profitability arrow is pointing higher.</p>\n<p>On the other hand, the real lure for Buffett and his team might be Verizon's rock-solid 4.8% yield. With inflation rising and bond yields still near historic lows, a dividend stock like Verizon is a smart and safe way to generate income.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b509a39788add5661cdd65e95d5cc808\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<h2>10. Bank of New York Mellon: $4.4 billion</h2>\n<p><b>Bank of New York Mellon</b> (NYSE:BK), the largest custodian bank in the world, rounds out the top 10.</p>\n<p>The likely reason Buffett has stuck by Bank of New York Mellon is the company's safer revenue stream. Whereas traditional banks rely on net interest income from loans for their bulk of their revenue, trust banks like Bank of NY Mellon generate most of their revenue from fees based on assets under custody. Even if interest rates change, BNY Mellon will see less of an impact than traditional banks.</p>\n<p>However, it's worth pointing out that because BNY Mellon also operating as an asset manager, lower interest rates have modestly pinched its profit potential. In many ways, Buffett's portfolio is going to benefit when interest rates and yields start climbing.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Stocks Make Up 87% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Stocks Make Up 87% of Warren Buffett's Portfolio\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-26 19:33 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/26/10-stocks-make-up-87-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nThe Oracle of Omaha has created over $600 billion in value for Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders since 1965.\nDespite owning stakes in nearly four dozen companies, just 10 stocks make up ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/26/10-stocks-make-up-87-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"KO":"可口可乐","USB":"美国合众银行","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","MCO":"穆迪","AXP":"美国运通","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","VZ":"威瑞森","BAC":"美国银行","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/10/26/10-stocks-make-up-87-of-warren-buffetts-portfolio/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2178408679","content_text":"Key Points\n\nThe Oracle of Omaha has created over $600 billion in value for Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders since 1965.\nDespite owning stakes in nearly four dozen companies, just 10 stocks make up 87% of Berkshire's $329.7 billion investment portfolio.\n\nWhen it comes to investing success, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK.A)(NYSE:BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett is in a class of his own. Buffett may not be infallible, but he's helped create more than $600 billion in shareholder value for the company's shareholders since taking the helm in 1965. As a whole, Berkshire Hathaway's shares have averaged an annual gain of 20% over the past 56 years, leading to an aggregate gain of better than 3,300,000%.\nInterestingly, though, the Oracle of Omaha's success isn't the result of diversification. Buffett believes diversification is only a necessity if you don't know what you're doing. As of this past weekend, the cumulative value of the nearly four dozen stocks held by Berkshire Hathaway was $329.7 billion. However, just 10 companies made up $286.1 billion, or 87%, of Warren Buffett's portfolio.\nBERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CEO WARREN BUFFETT. IMAGE SOURCE: THE MOTLEY FOOL.\n1. Apple: $134.9 billion\nInnovation kingpin Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is often referred to by the Oracle of Omaha as Berkshire Hathaway's \"third business.\" With over 907 million shares held and Apple regularly buying back its common stock, Berkshire's stake in the company has grown to 5.5%.\nBuffett's Apple investment is all about the power of branding, innovation, and transformation. Apple is the leading smartphone brand in the U.S., is benefiting immensely from the introduction of 5G wireless capability, and is steadily transforming itself into a platforms' company that'll be focused on subscription services. This shift, led by CEO Tim Cook, will allow Apple to better weather product replacement cycles, and it should have a positive long-term effect on operating margins and customer loyalty.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n2. Bank of America: $49.1 billion\nThere isn't an industry Warren Buffett loves more than bank stocks. With permission from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) to more than 1 billion shares, or 12.5% of outstanding shares. Normally, a 10% stake or higher would qualify an investor like Berkshire Hathaway as a bank holding company.\nBank of America is the most interest-sensitive of the money-center banks, which means it's the best-positioned to take advantage of higher lending rates come 2023 (and beyond).\nAlso, BofA has done an enviable job of promoting digital banking. With more bank customers than ever transacting online or via mobile app, Bank of America has been able to cut costs by consolidating some of its physical branches.\nIMAGE SOURCE: AMERICAN EXPRESS.\n3. American Express: $28.4 billion\nA big theme within Buffett's investment portfolio is that he loves financial stocks. Payment processor and lender American Express (NYSE:AXP) is the third longest-tenured company, with Berkshire holding a position since 1993.\nAmEx's success has long been tied to its ability to draw in affluent clientele. The well-to-do are less likely to alter their spending habits when minor economic contractions or recessions arise.\nFurther, American Express is what I call a \"double-dipper.\" In addition to processing credit transactions, it also acts as a lender, and is therefore able to collect interest income and fees from cardholders. Since economic expansions last for years, AmEx is a good bet to excel for long periods of time.\nIMAGE SOURCE: COCA-COLA.\n4. Coca-Cola: $21.8 billion\nBeverage giant Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO) happens to be Buffett's longest-turned holding. Berkshire Hathaway has held shares of Coke on an uninterrupted basis since 1988. With a cost basis on Coke of $3.25, Buffett and his investing team are now netting a 52% annual yield on cost.\nWhile Coca-Cola isn't the growth story it once was, it's still quite dominant. Its products can be found in all but two countries worldwide (North Korea and Cuba), and it has more than 20 brands generating $1 billion or more in annual sales.\nCoke also controls 20% of cold beverage market share in developed countries and 10% of cold beverage share in emerging markets. This gives the company highly predictable cash flow in established markets and organic growth potential in emerging regions.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n5. Kraft Heinz: $11.8 billion\nConsumer staples stocks no longer comprise a large percentage of Buffett's portfolio like they did two decades ago. However, packaged-foods company Kraft Heinz (NASDAQ:KHC) is no slouch. At $11.8 billion, it's Berkshire Hathaway's fifth-largest holding.\nAlthough Kraft Heinz is benefiting from the pandemic -- i.e., more consumers are eating at home -- it's arguably been one of Buffett's worst investments. The Oracle of Omaha freely admits that Heinz overpaid for Kraft Foods in 2015. Four years later, it led to a writedown in excess of $15 billion.\nIf there is a bright side, it's that Kraft Heinz is paying a hearty 4.4% yield. Nevertheless, with a 26.6% stake in Kraft Heinz, Buffett could reasonably be described as \"stuck\" in this position.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n6. Moody's: $9.4 billion\nCredit ratings agency and analytics company Moody's (NYSE:MCO) is another longtime holding that's grown into a huge position. Moody's has been a holding since it was spun off from Dun & Bradstreet in 2000, with Berkshire sporting an unrealized gain of more than 3,700%, thus far (not including dividends).\nIn recent years, historically low lending rates have been a boon for Moody's. The ability for corporations to issue low-interest debt has kept its bond-rating agency busy.\nMeanwhile, the complexity of the financial markets and ever-changing tax landscape have helped drive consistent double-digit growth to Moody's Analytics segment.\nIMAGE SOURCE: U.S. BANK.\n7. U.S. Bancorp: $9.2 billion\nHave I mentioned that Warren Buffett likes bank stocks? Although BofA is his clear favorite, Berkshire's position in regional bank U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB) is pretty much always just below the 10% threshold that would qualify it as a bank holding company.\nWhat's really impressive about U.S. Bancorp is its digitization push. In the September-ended quarter, 80% of all transactions were completed digitally, up 13 percentage points from the comparable quarter in 2019.  Since online or mobile transactions are significantly cheaper than branch-based transactions, the company has been able to consolidate its branches to improve its operating efficiency.\nU.S. Bancorp also avoided the riskier derivative investments that sacked money-center banks during the financial crisis. By sticking to the bread-and-butter of banking (i.e., loan and deposit growth), it's been able to deliver industry-topping return on assets.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n8. BYD Corp.: $8.6 billion\nSomething you might not realize about Buffett is that he invested a little over $231 million in 2008 into China-based electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD (OTC:BYDDY). Today that investment is worth around $8.6 billion.\nEVs are a no-brainer growth trend globally, but are an especially intriguing investment idea in China, the world's largest auto market. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, half of all auto sales by 2035 in China are expected to be some form of alternative energy.\nIn the third quarter, BYD sold approximately 183,000 next-gen vehicles, which includes EVs and hybrids. If looking at just EVs, the company sold close to 92,000, which was nearly triple the year-ago quarter.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n9. Verizon Communications: $8.4 billion\nThe newest big investment from Warren Buffett is telecom stock Verizon (NYSE:VZ). The Oracle of Omaha and his team acquired nearly $9 billion worth of Verizon shares in the first and second quarters of 2021.\nOn one hand, there's a good likelihood that Verizon will benefit from the rollout of 5G wireless infrastructure. Though its high-growth days are long gone, Verizon should benefit from increased data consumption as more consumers and businesses upgrade their devices. Since data is the company's key margin driver, the profitability arrow is pointing higher.\nOn the other hand, the real lure for Buffett and his team might be Verizon's rock-solid 4.8% yield. With inflation rising and bond yields still near historic lows, a dividend stock like Verizon is a smart and safe way to generate income.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n10. Bank of New York Mellon: $4.4 billion\nBank of New York Mellon (NYSE:BK), the largest custodian bank in the world, rounds out the top 10.\nThe likely reason Buffett has stuck by Bank of New York Mellon is the company's safer revenue stream. Whereas traditional banks rely on net interest income from loans for their bulk of their revenue, trust banks like Bank of NY Mellon generate most of their revenue from fees based on assets under custody. Even if interest rates change, BNY Mellon will see less of an impact than traditional banks.\nHowever, it's worth pointing out that because BNY Mellon also operating as an asset manager, lower interest rates have modestly pinched its profit potential. In many ways, Buffett's portfolio is going to benefit when interest rates and yields start climbing.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825816809,"gmtCreate":1634216569931,"gmtModify":1634216607695,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","listText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","text":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825816809","repostId":"1161146997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161146997","pubTimestamp":1634201365,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161146997?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161146997","media":"Barrons","summary":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys","content":"<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.</p>\n<p>The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.</p>\n<p>The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.</p>\n<p>What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.</p>\n<p>After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.</p>\n<p>The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.</p>\n<p>There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.</p>\n<p>John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.</p>\n<p>The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.</p>\n<p>To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.</p>\n<p>Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).</p>\n<p>At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 16:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBNY":"签字银行","CF":"CF工业","SBUX":"星巴克","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.","PLTK":"Playtika Holding Corp.","CG":"凯雷","CVE":"Cenovus能源","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","CNQ":"加国自然资源",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","ALGN":"艾利科技","SHLS":"Shoals Technologies Group",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","YETI":"YETI Holdings Inc.","RSG":"共和废品处理"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161146997","content_text":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.\nThe cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The S&P 500 index is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes Starbucks (ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy (CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank (SBNY),Align Technology (ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI),Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS),CF Industries (CF),Okta (OKTA),Playtika Holding (PLTK), and Republic Services (RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820305904,"gmtCreate":1633349666829,"gmtModify":1633351599098,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","listText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","text":"IMO Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG) is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission & Tax will eat into profit for short term as well.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820305904","repostId":"1145081858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145081858","pubTimestamp":1633271769,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145081858?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-03 22:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top Performing ETFs For September 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145081858","media":"The Street","summary":"Energy funds dominate as the cyclical reflation trade returns.","content":"<p>September will almost certainly be a month that most equity investors would soon forget. The S&amp;P 500's (SPY) loss of 4% was the first monthly loss for the large-cap index since January 2021 and the biggest monthly loss since the March 2020 COVID bear market that saw a loss of 12%.</p>\n<p>Tech stocks, which investors have often sought out in times of uncertainty, performed even worse by falling 6%. Long-term Treasuries also fell by more than 2% creating one of those unusual environments where stocks and bonds were both falling at the same time. It's essentially a reversal of the behavior we saw after the March interest rate peak where both groups actually gained more than 10% at the same time.</p>\n<p>One group that didn't suffer, however, was energy. Not every cyclical sector enjoyed the same success - industrials and materials have still been laggards - but the broad energy sector gained more than 10%. A few factors are at play here. OPEC has been hesitant to fully open up the crude oil production floodgates and that's helped keep the supply/demand curve imbalanced. It's gotten to the point now where there is a legitimate energy supply crunch that could last into the winter months. Energy prices are skyrocketing and that's been good for explorers and drillers, but it's creating a mini-crisis worldwide that could take some time to unwind. Add in the ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and we've got an unstable macro backdrop.</p>\n<p>Global energy demand, however, is expected to continue looking strong, especially as we get closer to the holiday travel season. The Fed has essentially confirmed that the U.S. economic recovery (with a few hiccups) is mostly on track to the point where the central bank is likely going to begin withdrawing some of its support later this year. The government's inability to reach a resolution on the debt ceiling about two weeks before it's scheduled to run out of money will likely add to volatility in the 4th quarter and the struggles for U.S. equities reflect a lack of optimism.</p>\n<p>Here's the list of the top performing ETFs for the month of September 2021.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b98338b73b9e0d8cbbf746866e4dd038\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"404\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Top Performing ETFs for September 2021</span></p>\n<p>Every ETF on this list, with the exception of only a few, are tied to the energy sector in some way. Energy prices, crude oil and natural gas in particular, have been rising quickly and that's reflected in the gains of commodity-linked products, including the<b>United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG)</b>, the<b>United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL)</b>, the<b>United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO)</b>, the<b>Invesco DB Oil Fund (DBO)</b>, the<b>United States Oil Fund (USO)</b>, the<b>Invesco DB Energy Fund (DBE)</b>and the<b>United States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL)</b>. In case you were wondering, the \"12 month\" funds spread out their exposures to contracts with expirations from 1 to 12 months out. The others, at least before the energy market crash last year, mostly focused on the nearest-month expiration contracts but have since expanded their strategies to avoid the chances such a debacle happens again. Natural gas prices, in particular, have been taking off as some forecasters have begun predicting a cold snap for this winter. Crude oil prices are settled in around $75 a barrel today, but a spike towards $100, while unlikely, is still not out of the question.</p>\n<p>On the equity side, we've got all sorts of funds focused on specific areas of the energy space and the broad sector in general. The<b>Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)</b>is the biggest name, but the<b>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE)</b>, the<b>Fidelity MSCI Energy ETF (FENY)</b>, the<b>Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE)</b>and the<b>iShares Energy ETF (IYE)</b>are all represented with gains of at least 8%.</p>\n<p>The explorers were the best performing subgroup to be found within energy, but clean energy ETFs are nowhere to be found. Among the winners: the<b>VanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil &amp; Gas ETF (FRAK)</b>, the<b>Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration &amp; Production ETF (PXE)</b>, the<b>SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (XOP)</b>and the<b>iShares U.S. Oil &amp; Gas Explorers &amp; Producers ETF (IEO)</b>all delivered gains of at least 15% on the month.</p>\n<p>A fund that has made regular appearances on both the top and performing ETF lists, the<b>Breakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY)</b>, is back on the leaderboard again with a 27% gain. Supply chain issues, again, are the main driver as ships still remain stranded in harbors for weeks at a time waiting to dock and delivery their loads. Shipping issues, which were originally expected to be only short-term in nature, I think could easily last into summer 2022 or beyond. Shipping costs are likely to remain sky high and that could play into BDRY's hands, but expect a LOT of volatility in this fund for a while.</p>\n<p>Other ETFs worth noting:</p>\n<p>Uranium ETFs have taken advantage of soaring prices over the past two months. The price of an ounce of uranium went from $30 in mid-August to as high as $50 recently before pulling back to its current level around $43. The<b>Global X Uranium ETF (URA)</b>is the best-known name of the group, returning more than 13%, but the<b>North Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM)</b>, a fund that has been around for nearly 2 years but is comparatively smaller, was the bigger winner logging a 22% return.</p>\n<p>China ETFs have done poorly,but that didn't stop the<b>Global X MSCI China Utilities ETF (CHIU)</b>from logging a 10% gain. The outperformance of a defensive sector, such as utilities, isn't surprising but the degree of outperformance perhaps is. CHIU nearly matched the monthly performance of the<b>Global X MSCI China Energy ETF (CHIE)</b>in September.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top Performing ETFs For September 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop Performing ETFs For September 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-03 22:36 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/top-performing-etfs-for-september-2021><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>September will almost certainly be a month that most equity investors would soon forget. The S&P 500's (SPY) loss of 4% was the first monthly loss for the large-cap index since January 2021 and the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/top-performing-etfs-for-september-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF","UNL":"United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund LP","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","UNG":"美国天然气基金"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/market-intelligence/top-performing-etfs-for-september-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145081858","content_text":"September will almost certainly be a month that most equity investors would soon forget. The S&P 500's (SPY) loss of 4% was the first monthly loss for the large-cap index since January 2021 and the biggest monthly loss since the March 2020 COVID bear market that saw a loss of 12%.\nTech stocks, which investors have often sought out in times of uncertainty, performed even worse by falling 6%. Long-term Treasuries also fell by more than 2% creating one of those unusual environments where stocks and bonds were both falling at the same time. It's essentially a reversal of the behavior we saw after the March interest rate peak where both groups actually gained more than 10% at the same time.\nOne group that didn't suffer, however, was energy. Not every cyclical sector enjoyed the same success - industrials and materials have still been laggards - but the broad energy sector gained more than 10%. A few factors are at play here. OPEC has been hesitant to fully open up the crude oil production floodgates and that's helped keep the supply/demand curve imbalanced. It's gotten to the point now where there is a legitimate energy supply crunch that could last into the winter months. Energy prices are skyrocketing and that's been good for explorers and drillers, but it's creating a mini-crisis worldwide that could take some time to unwind. Add in the ongoing supply chain bottlenecks and we've got an unstable macro backdrop.\nGlobal energy demand, however, is expected to continue looking strong, especially as we get closer to the holiday travel season. The Fed has essentially confirmed that the U.S. economic recovery (with a few hiccups) is mostly on track to the point where the central bank is likely going to begin withdrawing some of its support later this year. The government's inability to reach a resolution on the debt ceiling about two weeks before it's scheduled to run out of money will likely add to volatility in the 4th quarter and the struggles for U.S. equities reflect a lack of optimism.\nHere's the list of the top performing ETFs for the month of September 2021.\nTop Performing ETFs for September 2021\nEvery ETF on this list, with the exception of only a few, are tied to the energy sector in some way. Energy prices, crude oil and natural gas in particular, have been rising quickly and that's reflected in the gains of commodity-linked products, including theUnited States Natural Gas Fund (UNG), theUnited States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL), theUnited States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), theInvesco DB Oil Fund (DBO), theUnited States Oil Fund (USO), theInvesco DB Energy Fund (DBE)and theUnited States 12 Month Oil Fund (USL). In case you were wondering, the \"12 month\" funds spread out their exposures to contracts with expirations from 1 to 12 months out. The others, at least before the energy market crash last year, mostly focused on the nearest-month expiration contracts but have since expanded their strategies to avoid the chances such a debacle happens again. Natural gas prices, in particular, have been taking off as some forecasters have begun predicting a cold snap for this winter. Crude oil prices are settled in around $75 a barrel today, but a spike towards $100, while unlikely, is still not out of the question.\nOn the equity side, we've got all sorts of funds focused on specific areas of the energy space and the broad sector in general. TheEnergy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE)is the biggest name, but theInvesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF (RYE), theFidelity MSCI Energy ETF (FENY), theVanguard Energy ETF (VDE)and theiShares Energy ETF (IYE)are all represented with gains of at least 8%.\nThe explorers were the best performing subgroup to be found within energy, but clean energy ETFs are nowhere to be found. Among the winners: theVanEck Vectors Unconventional Oil & Gas ETF (FRAK), theInvesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF (PXE), theSPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP)and theiShares U.S. Oil & Gas Explorers & Producers ETF (IEO)all delivered gains of at least 15% on the month.\nA fund that has made regular appearances on both the top and performing ETF lists, theBreakwave Dry Bulk Shipping ETF (BDRY), is back on the leaderboard again with a 27% gain. Supply chain issues, again, are the main driver as ships still remain stranded in harbors for weeks at a time waiting to dock and delivery their loads. Shipping issues, which were originally expected to be only short-term in nature, I think could easily last into summer 2022 or beyond. Shipping costs are likely to remain sky high and that could play into BDRY's hands, but expect a LOT of volatility in this fund for a while.\nOther ETFs worth noting:\nUranium ETFs have taken advantage of soaring prices over the past two months. The price of an ounce of uranium went from $30 in mid-August to as high as $50 recently before pulling back to its current level around $43. TheGlobal X Uranium ETF (URA)is the best-known name of the group, returning more than 13%, but theNorth Shore Global Uranium Mining ETF (URNM), a fund that has been around for nearly 2 years but is comparatively smaller, was the bigger winner logging a 22% return.\nChina ETFs have done poorly,but that didn't stop theGlobal X MSCI China Utilities ETF (CHIU)from logging a 10% gain. The outperformance of a defensive sector, such as utilities, isn't surprising but the degree of outperformance perhaps is. CHIU nearly matched the monthly performance of theGlobal X MSCI China Energy ETF (CHIE)in September.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862916578,"gmtCreate":1632828366218,"gmtModify":1632828366543,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","listText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","text":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862916578","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p>\n<p>So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p>\n<p>Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p>\n<p>We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n</blockquote>\n<p>With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p>\n<p>The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p>\n<p>Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p>\n<p>Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p>\n<p>The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p>\n<p>Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p>\n<p>His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p>\n<p>It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p>\n<p>* * *</p>\n<p>With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p>\n<p><b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p>","source":"lsy1583725640930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 08:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":538,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":835854435,"gmtCreate":1629706484927,"gmtModify":1631892155842,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"BRK & SE .... the least also 10% return pa .... long term holding ..[美金] [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835854435","repostId":"2161742695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}